9
City Of Love
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 68
Greyville · Lucky Fish Mystic Dash B Stakes · 5f 212y
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength61%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Scottsville | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Greyville | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Greyville | 3 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-05-23 | Scottsville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Scottsville | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-05 | Scottsville | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 7-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 18/02/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 15/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 05/04/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 73% | +0.18 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 87% | +0.18 |
| 12/07/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 23/08/2026 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |