1
Magic Surprise
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 75
Greyville · Lucky Fish Mystic Dash B Stakes · 5f 212y
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Scottsville | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Greyville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Greyville | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Scottsville | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Scottsville | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Greyville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength85%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 28/01/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 23/02/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 29/03/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 78% | +0.12 |
| 13/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |