5
Maphaka
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 85
Greyville · Lucky Fish Mystic Dash B Stakes · 5f 212y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
96%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength72%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Greyville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Greyville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Greyville | 3 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-05-13 | Greyville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Scottsville | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-01-14 | Greyville | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 14/12/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 93% | +0.09 |
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 14/01/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 11/03/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |