10
Pongola
7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 53
Greyville · Join The Fun www.socialsquad.co.za Class 5 · 7f 210y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Greyville | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Scottsville | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Scottsville | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Greyville | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Greyville | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-01-25 | Scottsville | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength50%
Delivery trend -0.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 05/09/2025 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 64% | +0.08 |
| 26/12/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 55% | +0.12 |
| 25/01/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 23% | -0.14 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 08/07/2026 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 43% | -0.12 |
| 29/07/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |