Red Dawn
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 66
Greyville · Join The Fun www.socialsquad.co.za Class 5 · 7f 210y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Kenilworth | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Durbanville | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Kenilworth | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Kenilworth | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kenilworth | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-25 | Durbanville | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 04/01/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 25/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 25/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 06/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 12/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |