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6

Grand Occasion

5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 71

Greyville · Lucky Fish Fortune Cup Middle Stakes (F & M) · 7f 210y

#6

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. 2 wins from 6 runs this year. Latest win here in May. Below form sixth of 10 in minor event at Scottsville (8f, good, 33/1) 33 days ago. Needs a couple of these to falter.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Greyville 27/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Std 12927/10C54 @ Greyville 25/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Scottsville 14/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 1m154y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASS14/1244 @ Scottsville 15/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 7f210y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 24/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 7f210y GS 136 · HIGHER CLASS24/0444 @ Greyville 27/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m209y Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Scottsville 28/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS28/063C5 @ Greyville 04/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 7f210y Std 123C5 @ Scottsville 23/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 12023/08C5projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Scottsville?6th6th0
2026-07-04Greyville?10th10th0
2026-06-28Scottsville37th5th+2
2026-05-27Greyville41st0th+1
2026-04-24Greyville46th5th+1
2026-02-15Scottsville41st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1015/0228/0623/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength32%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/10/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
25/11/20252nd11/893%89%-0.04
14/12/20252nd10/382%91%+0.08
15/02/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
24/04/20266th7/163%44%-0.19
27/05/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
28/06/20267th9/153%14%-0.38
04/07/202610th18/15%18%+0.13
23/08/20266th25/10%44%+0.44