IvyArcIvyArc
3

Rahhabba

5yo Mare · 9-10 · OR 84

Greyville · Lucky Fish Fortune Cup Middle Stakes (F & M) · 7f 210y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

97%

Place Prob

77%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

2 wins from 5 runs this year. Respectable 2¼ lengths third of 12 to Mocha Blend in Gr 2 (16/1) at this course (9.9f, good) 61 days ago. Back down in trip. Uphill task.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength91%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Durbanville 07/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS7/0944 @ Greyville 22/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 25/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS25/1144 @ Greyville 26/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 06/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS6/024C5 @ Scottsville 11/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 7f210y GS 122C0 @ Scottsville 05/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m154y GS 1265/04C?C1 @ Greyville 02/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 1m1f208y GS 129 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Greyville 26/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS26/07C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-26Greyville?3rd-2th+4
2026-05-02Greyville?2nd-2th+4
2026-04-05Scottsville?1st1st0
2026-03-11Scottsville?1st1st0
2026-02-06Greyville42nd1st+1
2025-12-26Greyville42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0926/125/0426/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +10.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/09/20257th14/126%0%-0.26
22/10/20256th11/486%17%-0.69
25/11/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
26/12/20252nd9/488%86%-0.02
06/02/20262nd13/891%83%-0.08
11/03/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
05/04/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
02/05/20262nd5/174%90%+0.16
26/07/20263rd16/116%82%+0.66