5
Saint Brigid
6yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 72
Greyville · Lucky Fish Fortune Cup Middle Stakes (F & M) · 7f 210y
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength55%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Scottsville | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Greyville | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Scottsville | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Greyville | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Greyville | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-23 | Greyville | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 05/12/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 11/01/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 11% | -0.63 |
| 23/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 56% | -0.08 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/07/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |