4
Day Two
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 69
Greyville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Class 4 · 1m 2f 206y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
81%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Greyville | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Greyville | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Scottsville | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Greyville | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-06 | Greyville | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Scottsville | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength91%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 28/12/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 44% | -0.37 |
| 25/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 89% | +0.06 |
| 15/02/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 55% | -0.24 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 91% | +0.36 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |