12
King Bavarian
7yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 63
Greyville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Class 4 · 1m 2f 206y
#3
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Greyville | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Greyville | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-12-05 | Greyville | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-16 | Greyville | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Greyville | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-24 | Greyville | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength45%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 16/06/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 43% | -0.45 |
| 05/09/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 24/09/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |
| 22/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 16/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 05/12/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 21/08/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |