2
Last Ovation
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 72
Greyville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Class 4 · 1m 2f 206y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲3
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Greyville | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Greyville | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Greyville | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Greyville | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-03-22 | Greyville | ? | 7th | 12th | −4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Scottsville | ? | 10th | 15th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength56%
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 22/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |