6
Tobacconist
6yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 69
Greyville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Class 4 · 1m 2f 206y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Greyville | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Greyville | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Scottsville | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Greyville | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Greyville | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Scottsville | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength53%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.11 |
| 11/01/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 15/02/2026 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 01/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 22/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 78% | -0.10 |
| 24/04/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 19/07/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 55% | +0.02 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |