18:30 · Ayr

Christmas Parties At Western House Hotel Handicap

6fGoing TBCClass 63YO plusTURFHandicap13 runners
Ordered by projected finish
13
2
OR 4912/1
Lanarra silks

The Covenanters

3yo Filly · 8-8

Far Above - Shushu Sugartown (Invincible Spirit)

A Mullen70%0/1R M Smith
612343
6.0

Opened her account at Newcastle (6f) in October and creditable placed efforts on 3 of her 4 starts this year, latterly 1¼ lengths third of 9 to Mr Cool over C&D (good to firm) 12 days ago. Unlikely to be far away if in similar form.

Class Advantage

14/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above14/09 · mark par14/094/10 · C6 · finish vs mark above4/10 · mark par21/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above21/05 · mark par8/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above8/06 · mark par20/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par27/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength35%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 29%14/09Pos 1 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 75%21/05Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 75%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 40%20/07Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 75%27/07
Projected finish1st of 13
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength77%
ExpectedActualTrend
8
Market Fav4
OR 6211/8
Whiskey Kisses silks

West Loudoun Racing Club

3yo Filly · 9-7

Mehmas - Jessica Rocks (Fastnet Rock)

Greg Fairley70%R M Smith
460933
5.0Going 8.0

Maiden. Creditable third in firm-ground C&D handicaps on last 2 outings. Will need to pull out a bit more to land a first win.

Class Advantage

13/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/03 · mark par13/0325/03 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below25/03 · mark par20/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below20/06 · mark par6/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par13/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par20/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par20/07projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move1
Strength56%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 50%13/03Pos 6 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 6 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 17%Pos 14 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%20/06Pos 9 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 3 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 71%13/07Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 60%20/07
Projected finish2nd of 13
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength84%
ExpectedActualTrend
1
Top Pick1
OR 687/2
Mr Cool silks

Middleham Park Racing IX

4yo Gelding · 10-3

Kodiac - Moojha (Forest Wildcat)

Oliver Stammers60%0/1C Johnston
735231
9.0Going 8.0Class ↓4

Snapped a losing run in C&D handicap (good to firm) 12 days ago. Retains plenty of handicapping scope off 4 lb higher.

Class Advantage

2/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above2/06 · mark par2/0618/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above18/06 · mark par25/06 · C6 · finish vs mark below25/06 · mark par9/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above9/07 · mark par17/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par27/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength77%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 7 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 25%2/06Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 67%Pos 5 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 5 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 33%25/06Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 90%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 60%17/07Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%27/07
Projected finish3rd of 13
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength72%
ExpectedActualTrend
3
8
OR 634/1
Impressor silks

Mr J Toes & Mr J O'loan

9yo Gelding · 9-12

Footstepsinthesand - Little Empress (Holy Roman Emperor)

Lewis Edmunds60%Phillip Makin60%
400636
4.0
Cheek pieces

C&D winner. Third over 6f at Hamilton in June and possibly found the outing coming too soon when last of 6 back there 6 days later. Fairly handicapped and any easing of the ground in his favour.

Class Advantage

29/03 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above29/03 · mark par29/0312/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/04 · mark par18/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/04 · mark par18/05 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/05 · mark par4/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par10/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below10/06 · mark par10/06projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength58%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 81%29/03Pos 10 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 44%Pos 10 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 10 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 47%18/04Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 55%Pos 3 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 3 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 75%4/06Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 0%10/06
Projected finish4th of 13
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength83%
ExpectedActualTrend
2
5
OR 645/1
Annie Edson Taylor silks

Mr James Binks

5yo Mare · 9-13

Mayson - Rivalry (Medicean)

S H James80%0/5Phillip Makin60%
604616
5.0Going 8.0
Blinkers1st Tongue Strap +2

Resumed winning ways in 10-runner handicap at Thirsk (6f) in June but only fifth at Hamilton 12 days later. Freshened up since.

Class Advantage

27/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/09 · mark par27/0923/10 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above23/10 · mark par1/05 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above1/05 · mark par19/05 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/05 · mark par5/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par17/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/06 · mark par17/06projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength53%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 55%27/09Pos 10 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 10 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 18%Pos 4 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 73%1/05Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 29%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%5/06Pos 6 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 6 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 29%17/06
Projected finish5th of 13
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength58%
ExpectedActualTrend
5
3
OR 615/1
Thunderstorm Katie silks

Summerstorm Bloodstock Ltd

5yo Mare · 9-10

Muhaarar - Firenze (Efisio)

Lauren Young0/4−5lbJ S Goldie
222629
6.0

C&D winner. Runner-up 4 times this year and had a quick turnaround as a possible excuse for below-par effort at Hamilton last weekend.

Class Advantage

15/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above15/05 · mark par15/0520/05 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/05 · mark par4/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par11/07 · C6 · finish vs mark below11/07 · mark par31/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par1/08 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above1/08 · mark par1/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength65%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 89%15/05Pos 2 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 2 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 80%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 88%4/06Pos 6 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 6 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 29%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 80%31/07Pos 9 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 9 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 20%1/08
Projected finish6th of 13
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength39%
ExpectedActualTrend
11
10
OR 536/1
Ukiyo silks

Mr Paul D Mulligan

5yo Mare · 9-2

Kuroshio - Cumbrian Applause (Vale Of York)

Mikey Sheehy60%A Kinirons
202038
4.0

Irish raider who was a creditable third at Fairyhouse (6f) in June and raced too keenly back at 7f a week later. Claims if on a going day but she's a bit hit and miss.

Class Advantage

30/03 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above30/03 · mark par30/033/05 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/05 · mark par31/05 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above31/05 · mark par3/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/06 · mark par12/06 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par19/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par19/06projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength60%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 93%30/03Pos 12 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 12 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 15%Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 93%31/05Pos 15 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 15 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 26%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 86%12/06Pos 8 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 8 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 30%19/06
Projected finish7th of 13
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength75%
ExpectedActualTrend
4
7
OR 6210/3
Kelpie Grey silks

Mr Paul Stewart

6yo Gelding · 9-11

Havana Grey - Malelane (Prince Sabo)

P Mulrennan60%3/17J S Goldie
658606
3.0Class ↓4

Winless since completing a hat-trick in spring 2024. His mark has dropped significantly as a result but he rather typically promised more than he delivered when sixth to Mr Cool over C&D (good to firm) 12 days ago.

Class Advantage

12/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/04 · mark par12/0420/05 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/05 · mark par4/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below4/06 · mark par20/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par6/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par27/07projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength65%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 44%12/04Pos 5 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 5 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 50%Pos 8 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 8 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 13%4/06Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 62%Pos 13 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 13 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 25%6/07Pos 6 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 6 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 38%27/07
Projected finish8th of 13
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength51%
ExpectedActualTrend
12
6
OR 519/2
Doon The Glen silks

Johnnie Delta Racing

6yo Gelding · 9-0

Orientor - Glenlini (Bertolini)

Barry McHugh60%J S Goldie60%
834718
5.0
Visor

Better than ever when notching a second 6f Hamilton success of the season last month. Last of 8 over 5f here since, though.

Class Advantage

17/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/06 · mark par17/0625/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above25/06 · mark par11/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par13/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par16/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above16/07 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark below27/07 · mark par27/07projClass-projected finish: 12th of 13
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength41%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 8 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 0%17/06Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 57%11/07Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 14%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%16/07Pos 8 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 8 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 0%27/07
Projected finish9th of 13
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength38%
ExpectedActualTrend
10
13
OR 578/1
Highfield Sunshine silks

Trainers House Enterprises Ltd

4yo Filly · 9-6

Mehmas - Teodelight (Teofilo)

Jason Hart0/11J & S Quinn
657005
2.0

Yet to win and hard to make a case for on 3 efforts this year. The first-time visor she wore last time is quickly discarded.

Class Advantage

15/09 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above15/09 · mark par15/092/10 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above2/10 · mark par18/10 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/10 · mark par8/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below8/04 · mark par6/06 · C6 · finish vs mark below6/06 · mark par22/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above22/07 · mark par22/07projClass-projected finish: 13th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move
Strength53%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 44%15/09Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 40%18/10Pos 11 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 11 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 9%Pos 10 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 10%6/06Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 33%22/07
Projected finish10th of 13
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength56%
ExpectedActualTrend
6
11
OR 634/1
Taaklam silks

Rise One Racing - Taaklam

3yo Gelding · 9-8

Mehmas - Salayel (Bated Breath)

Aiden BrookesH Bethell
533257
4.0

Fair maiden. Placed in all-weather handicaps on his first two runs for this yard but a couple of lesser turf runs have followed.

Class Advantage

21/09 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a21/0914/10 · C6 · finish vs mark above14/10 · mark par13/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above13/04 · mark par30/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/04 · mark par21/05 · C6 · finish vs mark below21/05 · mark par31/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par31/07projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength55%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 43%21/09Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 71%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 83%13/04Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 90%Pos 5 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 5 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 0%21/05Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 45%31/07
Projected finish11th of 13
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength41%
ExpectedActualTrend
9
12
OR 6122/1
Elemma silks

John Rhodes & Peter Timmins

3yo Filly · 9-6

Starman - Pale Orchid (Invincible Spirit)

Billy Garritty60%0/1R A Fahey80%
4570
3.0

Starman filly who showed a bit in maiden/novices on turf in the spring but made a very disappointing start to her handicap career on Newcastle's all-weather in June.

Class Advantage

21/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a21/0417/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a17/0530/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a30/0525/06 · C6 · finish vs mark below25/06 · mark par25/06projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move2
Strength67%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 0%21/04Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 43%17/05Pos 7 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 40%30/05Pos 13 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 0%25/06
Projected finish12th of 13
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength50%
ExpectedActualTrend
7
9
OR 6218/1
Masai Angel silks

Sheikh Salman Al Khalifa & Partner

3yo Gelding · 9-7

Harry Angel - Military Angel (Big Brown)

J Garritty60%R A Fahey60%
5430
4.0Class ↓4

Lightly-raced maiden. Tenth of 11 on handicap debut at Thirsk (6f, good to firm) 38 days ago. Still early days but hard to fancy after that.

Class Advantage

15/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a15/0620/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a20/0417/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a17/061/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below1/07 · mark par1/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move2
Strength96%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 0%15/06Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 63%20/04Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 50%17/06Pos 10 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 10 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 10%1/07
Projected finish13th of 13
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength17%
ExpectedActualTrend