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18:45 · Churchill Downs

Race 5 - Claiming

1m 110y3YO plusDIRT9 runners
Ordered by projected finish
6
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 79
3/1
Final Thoughts silks

Gary And Mary West

Final Thoughts

3yo Colt · 8-6

Maximum Security - Academy Gal (Medaglia D'oro)

Luis Saez60%B Cox60%
71
6.0Going 8.0

Class Advantage

7/07 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a7/0718/08 · C9 · finish vs mark above18/08 · mark par18/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 110y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 14%7/07Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%18/08
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -14.6%Ahead 1/2
8
2
OR 81
9/2
Fast Joker silks

Gustavo Esquivel

Fast Joker

4yo Gelding · 8-10

Practical Joke - My Lucky Spell (Lookin At Lucky)

Rafael Bejarano0/3Gustavo Esquivel
435443
5.0

Class Advantage

19/04 · C8 · finish vs mark below19/04 · mark par19/048/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below8/05 · mark par31/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below31/05 · mark par25/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below25/06 · mark par24/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below24/07 · mark par17/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below17/08 · mark par17/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 110y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 63%19/04Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 50%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 33%31/05Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 57%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 40%24/07Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 67%17/08
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -7.3%Ahead 1/4
5
5
OR 84
4/1
T V Channel silks

David Jacobson

T V Channel

4yo Gelding · 8-12

English Channel - Half Irish (Lonhro)

Tyler GaffalioneDavid Jacobson
716
4.0

Class Advantage

17/06 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a17/0623/08 · C9 · finish vs mark above23/08 · mark par23/082/09 · C8 · finish vs mark below2/09 · mark par2/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 110y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 33%17/06Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%23/08Pos 6 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 6 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 44%2/09
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength75%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +5.7%Ahead 2/3
4
6
OR 74
4/1
Bagg O Time silks

Windy Spa Racing Stable Llc

Bagg O Time

3yo Colt · 8-6

Vino Rosso - Wonder Blondy (He's Had Enough)

Brian Jr Hernandez0/2Thomas Vance
510235
5.0

Class Advantage

19/02 · C9 · finish vs mark below19/02 · mark par19/0220/03 · C9 · finish vs mark above20/03 · mark par28/04 · C8 · finish vs mark below28/04 · mark par31/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below31/05 · mark par25/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below25/06 · mark par7/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below7/08 · mark par7/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 110y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 43%19/02Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 100%Pos 12 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 0%28/04Pos 2 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 83%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 71%25/06Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 20%7/08
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +14.1%Ahead 2/4
9
3
OR 80
6/1
East Village silks

Baccari Racing Stable Llc And Sf Racing Llc

East Village

3yo Gelding · 8-6

Twirling Candy - Bourbonesque (Dynaformer)

Emmanuel Esquivel60%0/1Kenneth McPeek
477052
4.0Class ↓3

Class Advantage

23/10 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above23/10 · mark par23/1021/11 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below21/11 · mark par21/03 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below21/03 · mark par19/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below19/04 · mark par13/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below13/08 · mark par29/08 · C8 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength58%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 110y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 67%23/10Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 0%21/03Pos 12 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 12 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 5 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 5 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 50%13/08Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 90%29/08
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength27%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -26.8%Ahead 1/4
1
4
OR 75
8/1
Fitzgerald silks

Southern Springs Stables (ron Moquett), Load Clear, Llc And Simple Dreams, Llc

Fitzgerald

3yo Gelding · 8-6

By My Standards - Geebes (Fusaichi Pegasus)

Keith Asmussen1/3R Moquett
523414
6.0

Class Advantage

20/03 · C9 · finish vs mark below20/03 · mark par20/0324/04 · C9 · finish vs mark above24/04 · mark par15/05 · C9 · finish vs mark below15/05 · mark par18/06 · C9 · finish vs mark below18/06 · mark par25/07 · C9 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par17/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below17/08 · mark par17/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength3%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 110y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 33%20/03Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 91%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 60%15/05Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%25/07Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 50%17/08
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +1.7%Ahead 2/4
7
7
OR 75
8/1
Refined Design silks

Bruno Schickedanz

Refined Design

3yo Gelding · 8-6

Twirling Candy - Style And Grace (Curlin)

James Graham60%Felipe Nickel
737135
4.0

Class Advantage

7/03 · C9 · finish vs mark below7/03 · mark par7/0320/03 · C9 · finish vs mark below20/03 · mark par23/04 · C9 · finish vs mark below23/04 · mark par12/07 · C9 · finish vs mark above12/07 · mark par31/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below31/07 · mark par17/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below17/08 · mark par17/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 110y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 7 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 0%7/03Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 14%23/04Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 71%31/07Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 33%17/08
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength63%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +8.7%Ahead 2/4
2
8
OR 75
20/1
Dewy's Denali silks

Spar Hawk Farm And True Faith Farm

Dewy's Denali

3yo Gelding · 8-6

Violence - Snow Top Mountain (Najran)

Assael Espinoza60%0/2Reina Gonzalez
553489
3.0Class ↓3

Class Advantage

28/03 · C7 (higher class) · finish vs mark below28/03 · mark par28/0310/04 · C8 · finish vs mark below10/04 · mark par17/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below17/05 · mark par6/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below6/06 · mark par24/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below24/07 · mark par20/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 110y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 43%28/03Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 3 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 50%17/05Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 25%Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%24/07Pos 9 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 0%20/08
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength11%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +12.2%Ahead 1/4
3
9
OR 75
30/1
Malevaje silks

Carpio Milano Racing Stable, Inc

Malevaje

4yo Gelding · 8-10

Accelerate - Regal Song (Noble Mission)

Albin JimenezRilardo Carpio
407163
2.0

Class Advantage

22/10 · C9 · finish vs mark below22/10 · mark par22/1027/12 · C9 · finish vs mark below27/12 · mark par17/01 · C9 · finish vs mark below17/01 · mark par19/03 · C9 · finish vs mark below19/03 · mark par10/05 · C9 · finish vs mark below10/05 · mark par23/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below23/08 · mark par23/08projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 110y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 64%22/10Pos 12 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 4 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 73%17/01Pos 12 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 12 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 0%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 25%10/05Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 17%23/08
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength14%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +10.8%Ahead 3/4