7
Itiepy
8yo Mare · 10-12
Auteuil · Prix Laniste Chase · 2m 5f 191y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength60%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.1
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.9
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Auteuil | 1 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-04-25 | Auteuil | 2 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-05-31 | Auteuil | ? | +3 | ||
| 2025-05-03 | Auteuil | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-04-15 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-03-24 | Compiegne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength86%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/11/2024 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 15/12/2024 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 29/12/2024 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 15/02/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 24/03/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 92% | +0.77 |
| 15/04/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.18 |
| 03/05/2025 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 71% | +0.16 |
| 25/04/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 87% | +0.60 |