14:08 · Pontefract

Napoleons Casino Bradford Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m 4f 5yGoodClass 43YO plusTURFHandicap5 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Top Pick1
OR 85
3/1
Morbeh silks

Shadwell Estate Company Ltd

3yo Gelding · 9-9

Dubawi - Raabihah (Sea The Stars)

Cieren Fallon80%1/2R Varian70%
142113
7.0Class ↓2Going 8.0
1st Hood +1

Well-bred sort who took his form up another notch when adding to his tally at Chester (1¼m, soft) in June. Posted a creditable third from a much higher mark at Ascot the following month and he commands respect over this longer trip now fitted with a hood.

Class Advantage

17/01 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/01 · mark par17/0129/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/03 · mark par1/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/05 · mark par18/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/05 · mark par12/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par10/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below10/07 · mark par10/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength38%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 33%Dist: 1m 4f 5y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%17/01Pos 4 · SP 85/40 | Expected: 89%Pos 4 · SP 85/40 | Actual: 57%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 83%1/05Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 100%12/06Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 33%10/07
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength80%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -9.7%Ahead 2/4
1
4
OR 85
7/1
Sea Lantern silks

Mr P Boyle

4yo Gelding · 10-2

Sea The Stars - Candle Lit (Duke Of Marmalade)

Rowan Scott60%B Ellison
313
6.0

Successful on second of 2 starts in Irish maidens last summer and further progress starting out for new yard/after 8 months off when third over an inadequate 1¼m in April. That form has been well advertised since and very interesting with potential for better still in handicaps back up in trip.

Class Advantage

19/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a19/081/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a1/0929/04 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above29/04 · mark par29/04projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 67%Dist: 1m 4f 5y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 71%19/08Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 100%1/09Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 60%29/04
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +43.8%Ahead 3/3
3
2
OR 78
4/1
Alma Latina silks

Miss K Rausing

3yo Filly · 9-2

Study Of Man - Aloe Vera (Invincible Spirit)

Rhys Clutterbuck60%R M Beckett70%
321334
6.0Going 10.0
Cheek pieces

Confirmed early promise when landing 4-runner maiden here (1¼m) in June. Shaped well before failing to handle the track when third on handicap bow at Epsom (1½m) in July but hasn't matched that form in subsequent runs at 1¾m, looking awkward off the bridle at Newmarket latest. Back down in trip now.

Class Advantage

24/04 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a24/0414/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a2/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a1/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above1/07 · mark par23/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below23/07 · mark par15/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above15/08 · mark par15/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength61%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 67%Dist: 1m 4f 5y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 78%24/04Pos 2 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 2 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 90%Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 100%2/06Pos 3 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 78%Pos 3 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 3 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 0%23/07Pos 4 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 4 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 25%15/08
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 5-5 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -40.4%Ahead 1/4
4
3
OR 71
12/1
Lightening Company silks

Middleham Park Cxv, Lycett Rcg & Partn

8yo Gelding · 9-2

Fast Company - Shama's Song (Teofilo)

Harry Vigors60%1/1−5lbB Haslam
000118
7.0Class ↓2

Cashed in off much-reduced marks when landing back-to-back course handicaps in the spring (including over this trip). Mixed bag subsequently but returns to this venue having finished a very good second over hurdles at Cartmel (17f) 3 weeks ago.

Class Advantage

5/03 · C5 · finish vs mark below5/03 · mark par5/037/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/04 · mark par29/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/04 · mark par13/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above13/05 · mark par26/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below26/06 · mark par29/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 67%Dist: 1m 4f 5y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 0%5/03Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%29/04Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 56%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 50%26/06Pos 2 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 90%29/08
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength68%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +33.9%Ahead 3/4
5
Market Fav5
OR 75
6/5
Traveling Man silks

Mr P Hickman And Lord Lloyd Webber

3yo Gelding · 8-13

Too Darn Hot - Parton (Kitten's Joy)

Mason Paetel1/2C Fellowes
93631
6.0Going 9.0

Well-bred type who has benefited from the step up to 1½m in handicaps. Had a bit to spare taking on his elders for the first time when comfortably off the mark at Newmarket 4 weeks ago. Remains low-mileage and appeals as the type who will have more to offer.

Class Advantage

9/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a9/0619/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a8/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a25/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par20/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength43%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 20%Dist: 1m 4f 5y · 40%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 9 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 11%9/06Pos 3 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 60%19/06Pos 6 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 0%8/07Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 60%25/07Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%20/08
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +22.1%Ahead 3/4