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15:20 · Southwell

Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Nursery

6f 16yStandardClass 62YO onlyALLWEATHERHandicap12 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 61
3/1
Wopbopaloomop silks

Phil Cunningham

Wopbopaloomop

2yo Filly · 9-11

Ubettabelieveit - Danzena (Denounce)

Jack Callan60%R Spencer
6461
6.0
Tongue strap

Proved a different proposition when winning a 14-runner nursery over 6f at Windsor 10 days ago after a 4-month break. Found plenty for pressure for that success and holds strong claims under a penalty if proving as effective back on all-weather.

Class Advantage

20/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a20/0429/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a29/0416/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a16/057/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above7/09 · mark par7/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength65%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 25%Dist: 6f 16y · 75%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 6 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 38%20/04Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 57%29/04Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 38%16/05Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 100%7/09
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +1.1%Ahead 2/4
3
3
OR 63
8/1
Stoney Wood silks

Gallagher Bloodstock Limited

Stoney Wood

2yo Colt · 9-7

Cotai Glory - Sea Of Dreams (Oasis Dream)

Callum Shepherd70%0/1M L W Bell80%
08565
3.0

Caught the eye when sixth of 9 over 5f at Lingfield in August but failed to build on that promise faced with good to soft going at Windsor 19 days ago. Worth another chance back on all-weather.

Class Advantage

22/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a22/0629/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a23/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a13/08 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/08 · mark par29/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength59%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 60%Dist: 6f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 10 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 25%22/06Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 22%29/06Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 64%23/07Pos 6 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 6 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 38%13/08Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 60%29/08
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength45%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +14.3%Ahead 2/4
5
6
OR 62
12/1
Classyfied silks

Mr K Macpherson & Partner,

Classyfied

2yo Filly · 9-6

Advertise - Al Shoughor (Shalaa)

J P Sullivan60%T D Easterby
544
5.0

Seemingly brought along with nurseries in mind and now open to improvement switched to all-weather and upped to 6f. Worth keeping an eye on in the betting.

Class Advantage

13/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a13/0824/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a24/082/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a2/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength86%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 6f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 20%13/08Pos 4 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 57%24/08Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 50%2/09
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +37.1%Ahead 3/3
4
7
OR 63
12/1
Polly The Sniper silks

Studart James Bloodstock

Polly The Sniper

2yo Filly · 9-7

Sergei Prokofiev - Fortune Told (Mondialiste)

William Cox0/3Tom Dascombe
562
6.0

Best effort (modest form) when second of 6 in a maiden at Bath 15 days ago. Now makes nursery debut back on all-weather and still only lightly raced.

Class Advantage

3/08 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a3/0818/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a18/082/09 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a2/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength62%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 33%Dist: 6f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 20%3/08Pos 6 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 38%18/08Pos 2 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 80%2/09
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +45.8%Ahead 3/3
2
4
OR 65
9/2
Crowned silks

Apollo Horses V

Crowned

2yo Colt · 9-9

Persian Force - Nawaady (Kingman)

Lewis EdmundsMichael Keady
34522
7.0

Twice runner-up since moving into nurseries on turf having been well backed on both occasions. Now back on all-weather and looks sure to be in the mix if in the same heart, though his stable haven't had a winner since June which is a concern.

Class Advantage

15/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a15/0625/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a5/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/08 · mark par23/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above23/08 · mark par29/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 20%Dist: 6f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 83%15/06Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 57%25/06Pos 5 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 5 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 56%5/08Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 80%23/08Pos 2 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 2 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 90%29/08
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -19.5%Ahead 0/4
11
2
OR 57
25/1
Pageant Girl silks

Nick Bradley Racing 18

Pageant Girl

2yo Filly · 9-1

Acclamation - Country Carnival (Mayson)

L Morris70%1/4James Owen60%
187505
3.0Class ↓4

Peaked when winning minor event at Ripon in April but not fired since with various equipment changes tried. Hard to be confident about.

Class Advantage

25/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a25/043/05 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a27/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below27/06 · mark par15/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below15/07 · mark par5/08 · C6 · finish vs mark below5/08 · mark par23/08 · C6 · finish vs mark below23/08 · mark par23/08projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength68%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 17%Dist: 6f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 100%25/04Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 7 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 7 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 14%27/06Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 10 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 0%5/08Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 20%23/08
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -5.2%Ahead 1/4
8
5
OR 59
10/1
Harry Who silks

Richard Fahey Ebor Racing Club Ltd

Harry Who

2yo Colt · 9-3

Space Blues - Dark Orchid (Dansili)

Ryan SextonR A Fahey60%
44
6.0

Green when fourth both starts to date and now makes nursery/all-weather debut on just third outing. Progress likely at some stage but it's still early days with him.

Class Advantage

1/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a1/0731/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a31/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength75%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 6f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 67%1/07Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 57%31/08
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength16%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +10.6%Ahead 1/2
12
11
OR 56
33/1
Defiant Dream silks

Rowdown Racing Partnership

Defiant Dream

2yo Filly · 9-0

Dream Ahead - Incorrigible (Oasis Dream)

Tyler Heard0/3M D I Usher60%
9265
4.0
Cheek pieces

Best effort when second of 5 over 5f at Ffos Las in June but recent nursery debut wasn't encouraging and now switches back to all-weather with a wide draw to contend with.

Class Advantage

4/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a4/0617/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a17/0624/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a24/079/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above9/08 · mark par9/08projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength68%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 25%Dist: 6f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 11%4/06Pos 2 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 75%17/06Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 44%24/07Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 43%9/08
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength57%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +42.0%Ahead 4/4
10
10
OR 57
8/1
Secret Rival silks

TBT Racing

Secret Rival

2yo Filly · 9-1

Ardad - Florida Filly (Sioux Nation)

Ashley Lewis60%−3lbE Walker
86775
3.0

Modest form at best to date but went with more zest when fifth of 11 in a handicap at Newcastle 15 days ago and can be competitive if building on that with good-value claimer taking over.

Class Advantage

6/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a6/0623/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a16/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a13/08 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/08 · mark par2/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above2/09 · mark par2/09projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength69%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 40%Dist: 6f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 13%6/06Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 44%23/06Pos 7 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 7 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 25%16/07Pos 7 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 7 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 25%13/08Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 60%2/09
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength44%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +2.4%Ahead 2/4
6
9
OR 61
14/1
Boutblummintime silks

Andy Finneran

Boutblummintime

2yo Gelding · 9-5

Nando Parrado - With One Accord (Acclamation)

O McSweeney0/2A Keatley
66446
5.0Class ↓4

No progress since switching to nurseries, though was in a better race than he need contest last time. Now makes all-weather debut.

Class Advantage

28/03 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a28/0315/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a18/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a31/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par2/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above2/09 · mark par2/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength95%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 6f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 64%28/03Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 0%15/05Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 70%18/06Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 50%31/07Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 29%2/09
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength29%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -7.6%Ahead 2/4
9
8
OR 58
12/1
Sovereign Beach silks

Nbr15,singh,sangster & Partners

Sovereign Beach

2yo Filly · 9-2

Ten Sovereigns - Stars So Bright (Sea The Stars)

David Probert70%Ollie Sangster60%
560348
4.0

Progress on nursery debut when third of 6 over this trip at Chepstow but looked stretched by 7f next 2 outings. Return to this trip looks sure to suit on all-weather bow.

Class Advantage

28/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a28/0512/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a23/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a24/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par13/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above13/08 · mark par29/08 · C6 · finish vs mark below29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength57%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 6f 16y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 33%28/05Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 29%Pos 10 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 10 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 0%23/06Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 60%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 67%13/08Pos 8 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 8 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 13%29/08
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -15.4%Ahead 2/4
7
12
OR 61
10/1
Sable Island silks

Strawberry Fields Stud

Sable Island

2yo Filly · 9-5

Rajasinghe - Annie Salts (Zebedee)

S De Sousa60%0/5C A Dwyer
376557
3.0Class ↓4

Winless in 7 starts and did no better dropped in grade or trip at Wolverhampton 10 days ago. Vulnerable to less-exposed rivals.

Class Advantage

26/05 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a26/0512/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a8/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above8/07 · mark par22/07 · C6 · finish vs mark below22/07 · mark par17/08 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/08 · mark par7/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above7/09 · mark par7/09projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength74%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 33%Dist: 6f 16y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 75%26/05Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 25%Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 29%8/07Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 33%Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 56%17/08Pos 7 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 7 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 40%7/09
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength27%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +2.5%Ahead 2/4