14:00 · Ayr

Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Kilkerran Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m 2fGood to Soft (Soft in places)Class 23YO plusTURFHandicap11 runners
Ordered by projected finish
10
Top Pick1
OR 79
8/1
Financer silks

S Bulmer, P Hebdon & R Taylor

5yo Gelding · 8-10

Cracksman - Isa (Approve)

D Allan60%2/15T D Easterby60%
214721
8.0
Cheek pieces

Winner of this corresponding event in 2024 and better than the result in last year's renewal. On a lower mark this time and showed a better attitude under pressure when landing a second success of the year at Beverley (8.5f, heavy) latest. Claims if in the same mood back up in distance.

Class Advantage

4/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/07 · mark par4/0719/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above19/07 · mark par25/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par8/08 · C3 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par16/08 · C3 · finish vs mark above16/08 · mark par30/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above30/08 · mark par30/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 1m 2f · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 86%4/07Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 79%25/07Pos 7 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 86%16/08Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%30/08
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +41.7%Ahead 4/4
6
2
OR 86
5/1
Impartiality silks

Mr J Toes & Mr J O'loan

4yo Gelding · 9-3

Sergei Prokofiev - Fair's Fair (Lawman)

S H James70%Phillip Makin60%
982222
7.0Going 8.0
Cheek pieces

Strong-travelling type. Only found one too good on each of his last 4 outings, finishing ahead of subsequent winners at Hamilton/Beverley before chasing home a well-backed favourite at Chester 5 days ago. May deservedly go one better this time.

Class Advantage

12/04 · C3 · finish vs mark above12/04 · mark par12/0416/05 · C3 · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par13/06 · C3 · finish vs mark above13/06 · mark par11/08 · C3 · finish vs mark above11/08 · mark par30/08 · C3 · finish vs mark above30/08 · mark par12/09 · C3 · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 17%Dist: 1m 2f · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 9 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 27%12/04Pos 8 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 8 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 42%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 89%13/06Pos 2 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 92%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 89%30/08Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 89%12/09
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength95%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +28.7%Ahead 4/4
9
5
OR 89
7/2
Wild Thoughts silks

Phil Cunningham

3yo Gelding · 9-1

Lucky Vega - She's Complete (Oratorio)

Saffie Osborne70%4/9R Spencer60%
127923
5.0
Cheek pieces

Quirky sort who completed a four-timer at Carlisle (1m) in May. Back on the up when smooth-travelling second at Newbury prior to finishing close third in this grade at Doncaster 7 days ago. Potentially interesting if things fall right on first start against his elders.

Class Advantage

11/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/05 · mark par11/0530/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above30/05 · mark par11/07 · C2 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par30/07 · C3 · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par15/08 · C3 · finish vs mark above15/08 · mark par10/09 · C2 · finish vs mark above10/09 · mark par10/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 17%Dist: 1m 2f · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%11/05Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 86%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 14%11/07Pos 9 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 56%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 67%15/08Pos 3 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 80%10/09
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +30.4%Ahead 2/4
7
3
OR 85
8/1
Altareq silks

Belgate Racing Limited

4yo Gelding · 9-2

Frankel - Aneen (Lawman)

P Mulrennan60%1/2J S Goldie
031000
4.0Going 8.0

Well-bred son of Frankel who was formerly with the Gosden yard. Capped a largely positive start for current connections when getting off the mark over C&D in July. Back down to a handy mark following 3 quiet runs since under stable's apprentice and has the look of one that's been laid out for this.

Class Advantage

12/06 · C2 · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par12/0624/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/06 · mark par5/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above5/07 · mark par11/07 · C2 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par11/08 · C3 · finish vs mark below11/08 · mark par21/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 17%Dist: 1m 2f · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 15 · SP 16/5 | Expected: 83%Pos 15 · SP 16/5 | Actual: 7%12/06Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 85%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%5/07Pos 19 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 19 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 14%Pos 11 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 11 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 17%11/08Pos 12 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 8%21/08
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength43%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +0.9%Ahead 3/4
5
4
OR 86
8/1
Tiernan silks

The Farming Army

4yo Gelding · 9-3

Dubawi - Jollify (Manduro)

A Mullen70%1/2I Jardine
602152
6.0Class ↓1

Forged clear to get off the mark in a novice at Hamilton last month. Subsequent fifth in Silver Bell there looks to have substance, and he was only bettered by a thriving one when ¾-length second at Kempton latest. Expected to give a good account returning to turf.

Class Advantage

15/05 · C3 · finish vs mark below15/05 · mark par15/0530/05 · C2 · finish vs mark above30/05 · mark par7/07 · C3 · finish vs mark above7/07 · mark par1/08 · C3 · finish vs mark above1/08 · mark par21/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par5/09 · C3 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength27%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 17%Dist: 1m 2f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 17%15/05Pos 11 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 9%Pos 2 · SP 6/5 | Expected: 94%Pos 2 · SP 6/5 | Actual: 89%7/07Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 100%Pos 5 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 67%21/08Pos 2 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 2 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 90%5/09
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength54%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +3.4%Ahead 2/4
8
Market Fav6
OR 85
11/4
Galyx silks

Jon and Julia Aisbitt

5yo Gelding · 9-2

Calyx - Gallic Star (Galileo)

George Bass60%2/3J Channon
730461
6.0

Ridden more positively when enhancing his record on heavy ground to 3-3 at Beverley last time, only kept up to his work to see off Impartiality by 3 lengths. Still relatively lightly raced for a 5-y-o, though may need plenty of rainfall to defy a mark that has previously proven beyond him.

Class Advantage

31/05 · C2 · finish vs mark above31/05 · mark par31/0525/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above25/06 · mark par13/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below13/05 · mark par12/06 · C3 · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par11/08 · C3 · finish vs mark above11/08 · mark par30/08 · C3 · finish vs mark above30/08 · mark par30/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 1m 2f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 7 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 54%31/05Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 75%Pos 13 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 13 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 25%13/05Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 77%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 58%11/08Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%30/08
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength83%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -8.0%Ahead 2/4
3
9
OR 91
16/1
Have Secret silks

Peter Timmins, John Rhodes & Partner

6yo Gelding · 9-8

Havana Gold - Secret Existence (Sakhee's Secret)

Billy Garritty60%2/13R A Fahey80%
150004
3.0
Visor

Useful handicapper who bounced back to form when 2¾-length fourth in a big-field York handicap last time. That performance can be marked up, and he's fairly treated if building on that.

Class Advantage

21/04 · C2 · finish vs mark above21/04 · mark par21/0415/05 · C2 · finish vs mark above15/05 · mark par5/06 · C2 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par11/07 · C2 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par22/08 · C2 · finish vs mark below22/08 · mark par6/09 · C3 · finish vs mark above6/09 · mark par6/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 50%Dist: 1m 2f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%21/04Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 71%Pos 12 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 27%5/06Pos 14 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 38%Pos 20 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 20 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 0%22/08Pos 4 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 79%6/09
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength75%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +35.8%Ahead 3/4
1
7
OR 97
20/1
Dain Ma Nut In silks

Lamont Racing

5yo Gelding · 10-0

Phoenix Of Spain - Jive Lady (Exceed And Excel)

Jason Hart60%0/1L Russell & M Scudamore
017020
4.0Class ↓1

Course winner who was well held in this event 12 months ago. Back to his useful best when ½-length second at Thirsk (form hardly robust) last month and can have a line put through latest run. Should at least be able to adopt his usual front-running tactics with Jason Hart back aboard.

Class Advantage

19/12 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a19/1229/01 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a19/02 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/02 · mark par11/07 · C2 · finish vs mark below11/07 · mark par1/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above1/08 · mark par22/08 · C2 · finish vs mark below22/08 · mark par22/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength37%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 17%Dist: 1m 2f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 12 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 12 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 8%19/12Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 33%19/02Pos 18 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 18 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 19%Pos 2 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 90%1/08Pos 16 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 16 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 21%22/08
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength28%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +21.1%Ahead 3/4
4
10
OR 87
16/1
Dark Moon Rising silks

Mrs Angie Bailey

7yo Gelding · 9-4

Night Of Thunder - Al Nassa (Bernardini)

T Eaves2/15K A Ryan60%
450160
4.0Class ↓2
Cheek pieces

Readily ended a losing sequence at York in July. Paid the price for big move into contention when fine sixth at the Ebor meeting and was possibly still paying for those exertions when down the field (behind Have Secret) there 11 days ago.

Class Advantage

3/04 · C3 · finish vs mark above3/04 · mark par3/0413/05 · C2 · finish vs mark above13/05 · mark par12/06 · C2 · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par10/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par22/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par6/09 · C3 · finish vs mark below6/09 · mark par6/09projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength25%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 33%Dist: 1m 2f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 77%3/04Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 56%Pos 12 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 12 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 27%12/06Pos 1 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 1 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 74%22/08Pos 13 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 13 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 14%6/09
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength34%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +25.4%Ahead 2/4
2
8
OR 92
20/1
Glittering Surf silks

Mr P Winkworth

4yo Filly · 9-9

Oasis Dream - Sparkling Surf (Frankel)

Callum Rodriguez60%0/1Owen Burrows
11570
3.0Class ↓1

Seemingly hasn't been the easiest to train since making an impressive start (2-2) on the all-weather in 2024/5. Off further 8 months since trailing the field in Kempton listed event (has had breathing operation) but not fully exposed returning to turf for her handicap bow.

Class Advantage

18/12 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a18/1229/03 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a16/05 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par26/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above26/07 · mark par28/03 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above28/03 · mark par28/03projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength42%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 1m 2f

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 100%18/12Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 100%29/03Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 50%16/05Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 25%26/07Pos 11 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 11 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 0%28/03
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 11-11 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -5.6%Ahead 2/4
11
11
OR 83
33/1
Steel Raven silks

Knockout Racing

3yo Gelding · 8-9

Supremacy - Silver Sabre (Epaulette)

Barry McHugh70%0/1A Keatley
33160
4.0Going 7.0

Lightly-raced 3-y-o who was much improved when defeating Tiernan in a Pontefract maiden in July. Hasn't built on that in a couple of warm handicap since, though an overly aggressive ride hardly helped his cause when trailing the field in the Melrose last time.

Class Advantage

9/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a9/061/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a7/07 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a31/07 · C3 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par22/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par22/08projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength12%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 40%Dist: 1m 2f · 60%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 82%9/06Pos 3 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 3 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 71%1/07Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 100%7/07Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 58%31/07Pos 17 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 17 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 0%22/08
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength3%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +29.2%Ahead 3/4