13:30 · Ayr

British Stallion Studs Scottish Premier Series EBF Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m 2fGood to Soft (Soft in places)Class 43YO plusTURFHandicap7 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
3
OR 74
7/2
Valley Of Flowers silks

Mrs C A Coward

8yo Mare · 9-7

Slade Power - Miss Cape (Cape Cross)

Joanna Mason60%6/35Samantha & Jacqueline Coward
241461
6.0Going 8.0

Versatile course winner who ended a long losing run in smooth fashion at Carlisle (11f) in July. Better than ever when justifying support to resume winning ways at Beverley (1½m, heavy) latest. Does face some better 3-y-o opposition off 4 lb higher this time.

Class Advantage

31/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above31/05 · mark par31/0522/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below22/06 · mark par4/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/07 · mark par11/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par24/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par29/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength23%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 1m 2f · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 91%31/05Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%4/07Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 63%Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 58%24/07Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%29/08
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength93%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +10.9%Ahead 3/4
1
Market Fav2
OR 81
7/4
Darzah silks

The Thoroughbred Racing Corporation Lt

3yo Filly · 9-9

Dubawi - Stylistique (Dansili)

D Tudhope60%W J Haggas
518152
6.0Class ↓2

Well-bred daughter of Dubawi who doubled her tally at Newmarket in June. Advanced her form when 2¾ lengths behind a more progressive one at Pontefract latest. Makes plenty of appeal now stepped up in trip, for a yard operating at a 38% strike rate with 3-y-o runners here in the past 5 seasons.

Class Advantage

15/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a15/0413/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a28/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above28/05 · mark par25/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above25/06 · mark par21/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below21/07 · mark par16/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/08 · mark par16/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength57%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 1m 2f

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 43%15/04Pos 1 · SP 8/15 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 8/15 | Actual: 100%Pos 8 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 8 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 36%28/05Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 0%21/07Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 75%16/08
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength40%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -28.7%Ahead 1/4
2
4
OR 75
7/2
Krissy silks

Mr James Mearns Long

5yo Mare · 9-8

Calyx - Advertising Space (Galileo)

Rhys Elliott60%4/10−5lbJ S Goldie
061492
5.0

Forward-going type. Held on gamely to notch her fourth win of the season at Musselburgh (9f) in June. Back on song when narrowly pipped by a thriving filly at Hamilton (9f) last time. May fall short off 2 lb higher, though, even if able to dictate.

Class Advantage

31/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above31/05 · mark par31/0517/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/06 · mark par22/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/06 · mark par4/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/07 · mark par20/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below20/07 · mark par21/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 17%Dist: 1m 2f · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 10 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 10%31/05Pos 6 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 6 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 29%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%22/06Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 57%Pos 9 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 9 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 0%20/07Pos 2 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 2 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 88%21/08
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength84%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +5.2%Ahead 2/4
6
Top Pick1
OR 67
14/1
Mudita silks

Farranamanagh

3yo Filly · 8-9

Galileo Gold - Monaleen (High Chaparral)

Saffie Osborne70%R A Fahey90%
533046
4.0Going 7.0
1st Hood +1

Ripon maiden winner who caught the eye when well-backed fourth in Class 5 handicap at Redcar (1¼m, good) last month. Best not judged on subsequent effort in higher grade at Beverley (heavy). Respected in first-time hood, though this is still a stronger race than ideal.

Class Advantage

3/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above3/06 · mark par3/0620/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par11/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par25/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par22/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par30/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above30/08 · mark par30/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength33%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 1m 2f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 5 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 20%3/06Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 60%11/07Pos 11 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 29%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 63%22/08Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 44%30/08
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength18%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.6%Ahead 2/4
7
6
OR 61
11/2
Sweet Kiss silks

Reality Partnerships Viii

4yo Filly · 8-9

Ulysses - Maybeagrey (Shamardal)

Jack Nicholls60%T D Easterby60%
562622
6.0
Cheek pieces

Completed a 1¼m handicap double off 4 lb lower this time last year. Has proved as good as ever with consecutive seconds at Redcar recently, perhaps getting racing too early when beaten 1¼ lengths there latest. Should remain competitive in her current vein of form.

Class Advantage

5/06 · C6 · finish vs mark below5/06 · mark par5/066/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par25/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par10/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above10/08 · mark par22/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par9/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 17%Dist: 1m 2f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 5 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 20%5/06Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 55%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 92%25/07Pos 6 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 6 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 86%22/08Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 88%9/09
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength79%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +5.5%Ahead 2/4
5
5
OR 68
12/1
Geo silks

Summerstorm Bloodstock Ltd

4yo Filly · 9-1

Mehmas - River Rock (Fastnet Rock)

P Mulrennan60%0/4J S Goldie60%
422346
5.0Class ↓2
Cheek pieces

Consistent filly who landed a 1m handicap off 3 lb lower mark here in May. Since hit the frame in back-to-back C&D handicaps (latter of those solid form) prior to facing a stiff task up in class at Haydock latest. Solid claims returning to this grade/course.

Class Advantage

24/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/06 · mark par24/0625/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/06 · mark par17/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par27/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par8/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par3/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength48%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 1m 2f · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 67%24/06Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 75%17/07Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 75%8/08Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 17%3/09
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength33%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.0%Ahead 2/4
4
7
OR 75
25/1
Thankfully silks

Mrs Tabor, Mrs Mv Magnier, Mrs Shanaha

3yo Filly · 9-3

St Mark's Basilica - Drumfad Bay (Acclamation)

S H James70%1/3K R Burke80%
150897
2.0Class ↓2

Sole success came in a Beverley maiden (8.5f) on return. Now steps up further in trip having again made no impact off her falling mark at Hamilton (9f) last time. Remains a risky betting proposition given slow-starting ways.

Class Advantage

15/04 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a15/0431/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above31/05 · mark par19/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par11/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below11/07 · mark par25/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below25/07 · mark par21/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Class readCOMPETITIVE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move
Strength38%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 33%Dist: 1m 2f · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%15/04Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 60%Pos 29 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 29 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 3%19/06Pos 8 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 8 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 13%Pos 9 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 27%25/07Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 25%21/08
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength17%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +2.6%Ahead 3/4