13:00 · Ayr

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5fGood to Soft (Soft in places)Class 53YO plusTURFHandicap20 runners
Ordered by projected finish
7
3
OR 68
12/1
Thistle Nil silks

Mr James Mearns Long

4yo Gelding · 9-10

U S Navy Flag - Souls In The Wind (Fastnet Rock)

Rhys Elliott60%2/5−5lbJ S Goldie60%
791801
7.0Going 7.0

Surprise 200/1 winner of a maiden here (soft) in June. Back to form when doubling his tally at Hamilton (5f, 50/1). Conditions should again suit but his all-or-nothing profile tempers enthusiasm.

Class Advantage

5/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a5/059/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a19/06 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a4/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below4/07 · mark par13/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below13/07 · mark par21/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 8th of 20
Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength32%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 33%Dist: 5f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 0%5/05Pos 9 · SP 300/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 300/1 | Actual: 27%Pos 1 · SP 200/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 200/1 | Actual: 100%19/06Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 13%Pos 11 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 0%13/07Pos 1 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 100%21/08
Projected finish1st of 20100% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +53.1%Ahead 3/4
9
2
OR 67
12/1
The Caltonian silks

Mr John Murphy & Miss L A Perratt

7yo Gelding · 9-9

Swiss Spirit - Azelle (Starcraft)

C Lee70%Miss L A Perratt
050543
6.0

Much better horse on the all-weather. Has hit the frame in back-to-back handicaps off much lower turf mark, latterly beaten 1½ lengths in an ordinary race at Redcar. Record on this surface (0-24) speaks for itself, though.

Class Advantage

13/04 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below13/04 · mark par13/0427/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par6/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par20/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par7/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above7/08 · mark par22/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par22/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 20
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength70%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 10 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 0%13/04Pos 5 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 69%Pos 12 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 31%6/07Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 67%7/08Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 80%22/08
Projected finish2nd of 2095% of fieldRange 1-20 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength56%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +18.2%Ahead 3/4
4
4
OR 70
12/1
Great Profit silks

Mr E Black

3yo Gelding · 9-11

Profitable - Piccola Sissi (Footstepsinthesand)

Barry McHugh70%1/6S Hanlon
822213
8.0

Low-mileage 3-y-o. Runner-up twice here before getting off the mark at Thirsk (6f) last month. Only beaten 2 lengths when keen enough on final start for Gary Harrison latest. Should remain competitive back against his elders for new yard.

Class Advantage

18/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/05 · mark par18/0520/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par16/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above16/07 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par7/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above7/08 · mark par5/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 20
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength28%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 200/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 200/1 | Actual: 30%18/05Pos 2 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 86%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 86%16/07Pos 2 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 2 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 88%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%7/08Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 85%5/09
Projected finish3rd of 2089% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength95%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +21.7%Ahead 4/4
1
Market Fav6
OR 69
7/2
Oriental Prince silks

Johnnie Delta Racing

5yo Gelding · 10-2

Orientor - Eternalist (Equiano)

P Mulrennan60%5/19J S Goldie60%
748261
6.0

Hit-and-miss sprinter. Well positioned when landing a second turf win in a big-field York handicap last time, the form since franked by a couple of the in-frame horses. Capable of following up back down in grade under a penalty.

Class Advantage

20/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par20/063/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/07 · mark par20/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par1/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/08 · mark par21/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par6/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above6/09 · mark par6/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 20
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength87%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 33%Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 54%20/06Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 13%20/07Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 90%Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 50%21/08Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 100%6/09
Projected finish4th of 2084% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +27.6%Ahead 3/4
6
Top Pick1
OR 68
8/1
Thunderstorm Katie silks

Summerstorm Bloodstock Ltd

5yo Mare · 9-10

Muhaarar - Firenze (Efisio)

Lauren Young60%1/6−5lbJ S Goldie60%
262916
6.0

Well placed/drawn when opening her account for the year over 6f here on penultimate start. Not in same form on softer ground at Hamilton subsequently and remains on a career-high mark.

Class Advantage

4/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par4/0611/07 · C6 · finish vs mark below11/07 · mark par31/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par1/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/08 · mark par8/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par2/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/09 · mark par2/09projClass-projected finish: 9th of 20
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 88%4/06Pos 6 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 6 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 29%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 80%31/07Pos 9 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 9 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 100%8/08Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 38%2/09
Projected finish5th of 2079% of fieldRange 5-20 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength39%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -7.7%Ahead 2/4
14
5
OR 62
50/1
Edgewater Drive silks

Gremlin Racing

5yo Gelding · 9-4

Dandy Man - Faseeha (Teofilo)

Greg Fairley70%0/1W Storey80%
143180
4.0Going 8.0
Tongue strap

Won pair of 5f handicaps on soft ground last autumn. Likely to have needed his reappearance (underwent another breathing operation in interim) at Hamilton latest. Potentially on a reasonable mark, if back on song.

Class Advantage

1/10 · C6 · finish vs mark above1/10 · mark par1/109/10 · C6 · finish vs mark above9/10 · mark par28/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above28/10 · mark par29/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/10 · mark par8/11 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above8/11 · mark par2/09 · C6 · finish vs mark below2/09 · mark par2/09projClass-projected finish: 12th of 20
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength40%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 5f · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%1/10Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 3 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 3 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 75%28/10Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 65%8/11Pos 13 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 0%2/09
Projected finish6th of 2074% of fieldRange 4-20 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength34%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +32.4%Ahead 3/4
16
12
OR 62
20/1
Whiskey Kisses silks

The Sneakers

3yo Filly · 9-3

Mehmas - Jessica Rocks (Fastnet Rock)

Jason Hart60%R M Smith
093326
5.0

Maiden who's placed 3 times in 6f handicaps here this summer. Wasn't disgraced in a better race than she need contest when beaten 3¼ lengths at Hamilton last time. Back down in trip/class here and booking of Jason Hart catches the eye.

Class Advantage

20/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below20/06 · mark par20/066/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par13/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par20/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par8/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par21/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 20
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength33%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 17%Dist: 5f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 14 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%20/06Pos 9 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 3 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 71%13/07Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 60%Pos 2 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 92%8/08Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 50%21/08
Projected finish7th of 2068% of fieldRange 1-17 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength69%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +45.1%Ahead 3/4
8
11
OR 67
14/1
Lion's House silks

Miss L A Perratt

5yo Gelding · 9-9

Oasis Dream - Muqantara (First Samurai)

Paddy Bradley0/1Miss L A Perratt
040426
5.0

Went close in 6-runner handicap prior to finding things too competitive in better race at Doncaster last time. Fairly treated but the type who needs plenty to fall right.

Class Advantage

17/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/05 · mark par17/054/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par20/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par13/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par8/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par15/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above15/08 · mark par15/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 20
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength51%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 12 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 8%17/05Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 40%Pos 12 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 15%20/06Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 70%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 80%8/08Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 44%15/08
Projected finish8th of 2063% of fieldRange 6-18 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength41%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +15.9%Ahead 3/4
19
9
OR 54
14/1
Never Dark silks

Alison Walker Sarah Cousins

9yo Gelding · 8-10

No Nay Never - Dark Missile (Night Shift)

Saffie Osborne70%I Jardine60%
672637
4.0
Cheek pieces

Isn't the force of old but has placed in a couple of handicaps off much-reduced mark this summer. Couldn't justify support in first-time cheekpieces at Carlisle latest, beaten 2¼ lengths. Still makes each-way appeal with Saffie Osborne taking over.

Class Advantage

21/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above21/07 · mark par21/071/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/08 · mark par11/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above11/08 · mark par21/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par27/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/08 · mark par9/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 11th of 20
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength29%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 17%Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 50%21/07Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 40%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 83%11/08Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 44%Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 80%27/08Pos 7 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 7 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 45%9/09
Projected finish9th of 2058% of fieldRange 6-20 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength31%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -2.7%Ahead 3/4
3
13
OR 69
16/1
King's Crown silks

Dods Racing Club

6yo Gelding · 9-11

Starspangledbanner - Textured (Dark Angel)

Sean Kirrane3/17M Dods70%
653405
4.0
Cheek piecesTongue strap

Won twice on the all-weather at Newcastle over the winter. Bit better than the bare result when beaten 2½ lengths at Hamilton last time (form has taken a few knocks) and drops a further 2 lb here.

Class Advantage

2/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above2/04 · mark par2/0426/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below26/04 · mark par22/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/05 · mark par16/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above16/06 · mark par13/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below13/07 · mark par1/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/08 · mark par1/08projClass-projected finish: 10th of 20
Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength35%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 17%Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 44%2/04Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 20%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 78%22/05Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 10 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 10 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 10%13/07Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 60%1/08
Projected finish10th of 2053% of fieldRange 1-20 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength45%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +16.8%Ahead 3/4
2
8
OR 70
25/1
Vince L'Amour silks

Reality Partnerships X

5yo Gelding · 9-12

Invincible Army - Red Romance (Dutch Art)

D Allan60%3/25T D Easterby90%
790208
3.0
1st Blinkers +3Tongue strap

Up-and-down performer. Again below form in better race at Catterick latest, but he has run well on his last 2 tries in this sort of grade (including when chasing home a thriving one last month).

Class Advantage

18/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/06 · mark par18/066/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below6/07 · mark par25/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below25/07 · mark par7/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/08 · mark par15/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above15/08 · mark par26/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below26/08 · mark par26/08projClass-projected finish: 18th of 20
Class readCLASS EDGE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move1
Strength61%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 0%18/06Pos 9 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 17 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 17 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 0%25/07Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 80%Pos 15 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 15 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 26%15/08Pos 8 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 0%26/08
Projected finish11th of 2047% of fieldRange 11-20 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength19%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +14.7%Ahead 2/4
15
10
OR 62
12/1
Knicks silks

Bruisers Boys, Nordoff, Windle, Westwo

5yo Gelding · 9-4

Invincible Spirit - Katla (Majestic Missile)

Billy Garritty60%0/6M & D Easterby60%
364273
6.0
Tongue strapVisor

On a long losing run but did place for third time this season when 1-length third in refitted tongue strap at Leicester (5f) last time. Visor goes back on and he's attractively handicapped if things fall right from stall 20.

Class Advantage

8/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above8/06 · mark par8/0616/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above16/06 · mark par29/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/06 · mark par11/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par25/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par8/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above8/09 · mark par8/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 20
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength39%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 17%Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 67%8/06Pos 6 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 6 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 44%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 57%29/06Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 90%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 40%25/07Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 80%8/09
Projected finish12th of 2042% of fieldRange 8-20 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength27%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -8.2%Ahead 2/4
13
7
OR 63
16/1
Hi Lord silks

Mrs M S Teversham

4yo Gelding · 9-5

Due Diligence - Lady Phill (Avonbridge)

T EavesS Hanlon60%
137305
4.0
Visor

Dual 5f winner. Only beaten 2 lengths in a slightly better C&D event in July. Headgear goes back on having been below form on a rare 6f outing on final start for Gary Harrison (stable also saddle Great Profit).

Class Advantage

3/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above3/05 · mark par3/054/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par10/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below10/06 · mark par13/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par8/08 · C6 · finish vs mark below8/08 · mark par8/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above8/09 · mark par8/09projClass-projected finish: 17th of 20
Class readPROGRESSIVE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 33%Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%3/05Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 60%Pos 7 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 7 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 0%10/06Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 80%Pos 10 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 10 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 18%8/08Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 50%8/09
Projected finish13th of 2037% of fieldRange 9-20 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -26.4%Ahead 1/4
12
15
OR 65
33/1
Justmyluck silks

Mr David Orr

3yo Gelding · 9-6

Harry Angel - Balayage (Invincible Spirit)

William Pyle70%0/1Miss L A Perratt60%
508599
3.0
Hood

Quirky sort who hasn't fired since getting off the mark on the all-weather in January. Worth checking if the market expects a revival for this sizeable drop in grade.

Class Advantage

17/02 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/02 · mark par17/023/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/04 · mark par23/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below23/05 · mark par17/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below17/07 · mark par15/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above15/08 · mark par21/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 16th of 20
Class readCLASS EDGE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move2
Strength64%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 33%Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 33%17/02Pos 11 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 23%Pos 8 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 0%23/05Pos 5 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 9 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 11%15/08Pos 9 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 20%21/08
Projected finish14th of 2032% of fieldRange 11-20 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength9%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +7.8%Ahead 2/4
5
18
OR 69
33/1
Emperor's Son silks

Mr Edward C Wilkin

5yo Gelding · 9-11

Kodiac - Flat White (Elusive Quality)

Joanna Mason60%0/1Samantha & Jacqueline Coward
694109
3.0Class ↓5

Successful twice for Richard & Peter Fahey this year. Sold for 11,000 gns after trailing the field on final start for that yard. Ran poorly on stable debut at Catterick latest, possibly not taking to first-time hood (now removed).

Class Advantage

31/01 · C5 · finish vs mark above31/01 · mark par31/016/02 · C5 · finish vs mark below6/02 · mark par8/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above8/06 · mark par17/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/06 · mark par4/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below4/07 · mark par17/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below17/08 · mark par17/08projClass-projected finish: 15th of 20
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength43%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 44%31/01Pos 9 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 9 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 67%8/06Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 10 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 0%4/07Pos 9 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 20%17/08
Projected finish15th of 2026% of fieldRange 10-20 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength19%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +18.4%Ahead 3/4
11
14
OR 66
16/1
Simba's Pride silks

Dods Racing Club

3yo Gelding · 9-7

Dream Ahead - Tequila Royale (Equiano)

Mark Winn60%2/9M Dods
543474
5.0

Has remained in reasonable heart since doubling his tally in 3-y-o handicap at Ripon (6f) in May. Paid for his overexuberance when 7¾ lengths fourth in testing conditions at Beverley latest. Still has bit to find at the weights on second start against his elders.

Class Advantage

12/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par12/0616/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above16/06 · mark par1/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/07 · mark par16/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above16/07 · mark par12/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/08 · mark par30/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above30/08 · mark par30/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 20
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength35%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 5 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 67%12/06Pos 4 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 4 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 50%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 80%1/07Pos 4 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 4 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 63%Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 33%12/08Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 73%30/08
Projected finish16th of 2021% of fieldRange 15-20 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -7.8%Ahead 1/4
17
17
OR 55
25/1
Opal Storm silks

Brian Rothwell Racing

6yo Mare · 8-11

Hot Streak - Dark Opal (Camacho)

P J McDonaldB Rothwell70%
818946
4.0
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

Resumed winning ways in 0-55 handicap at Beverley (5f) in July. Likely still in form following 1¾-length sixth at Carlisle latest, though probably vulnerable for win purposes back up in grade.

Class Advantage

14/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above14/07 · mark par14/0720/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par28/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above28/07 · mark par13/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/08 · mark par24/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above24/08 · mark par9/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 14th of 20
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 22%14/07Pos 1 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 8 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 8 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 13%28/07Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 11%Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 67%24/08Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 55%9/09
Projected finish17th of 2016% of fieldRange 5-20 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength9%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +5.3%Ahead 3/4
21
20
OR 52
33/1
Falcon Queen silks

Mr R Michael Smith

3yo Filly · 8-7

Earthlight - Elnadim Star (Elnadim)

A Mullen70%R M Smith
968497
2.0

Low-mileage 3-y-o. Promising fourth over C&D last month. Never got chance to justify support (denied a clear run) when dropped into a 0-55 at Musselburgh latest. Back up in grade here.

Class Advantage

20/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par20/0613/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark below27/07 · mark par8/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par21/08 · C6 · finish vs mark below21/08 · mark par12/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 19th of 20
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength25%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 17%Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 38%20/06Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 8 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 13%27/07Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 73%Pos 9 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 9 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 11%21/08Pos 7 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 7 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 40%12/09
Projected finish18th of 2011% of fieldRange 9-20 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength17%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +14.3%Ahead 3/4
18
16
OR 55
50/1
Lucius Aurelius silks

John Kelly, John McNeill & Kevin Mowat

4yo Gelding · 8-11

Zoustar - Excelette (Exceed And Excel)

Mikey Sheehy60%K A Ryan60%
103898
2.0
Cheek pieces

Lost his way since a breakthrough success at Catterick in April. Now 2 lb below that mark but hard to be confident that he'll capitalise.

Class Advantage

22/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above22/04 · mark par22/0422/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below22/05 · mark par11/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/06 · mark par29/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/06 · mark par15/07 · C6 · finish vs mark below15/07 · mark par4/08 · C6 · finish vs mark below4/08 · mark par4/08projClass-projected finish: 20th of 20
Class readPROGRESSIVE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move
Strength23%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 33%Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%22/04Pos 10 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 10 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 67%11/06Pos 8 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 8 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 0%Pos 9 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 9 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 0%15/07Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 0%4/08
Projected finish19th of 205% of fieldRange 18-20 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -28.7%Ahead 0/4
20
19
OR 51
16/1
Pockley silks

Mr William Burns & Miss L A Perratt

8yo Gelding · 8-7

Shalaa - Wanting (Acclamation)

Lexie Clarkson−7lbMiss L A Perratt
701675
3.0

Winner of 4 races on the all-weather at Newcastle last year. He's 8 lb lower on turf (0-37) and this presumably a pipe-opener following 9 months away.

Class Advantage

13/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above13/09 · mark par13/0918/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/09 · mark par21/10 · C6 · finish vs mark above21/10 · mark par20/11 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/11 · mark par27/11 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/11 · mark par9/12 · C6 · finish vs mark above9/12 · mark par9/12projClass-projected finish: 13th of 20
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 33%Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 40%13/09Pos 13 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 29%Pos 1 · SP 18/5 | Expected: 81%Pos 1 · SP 18/5 | Actual: 100%21/10Pos 6 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 6 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 38%Pos 7 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 7 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 40%27/11Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 60%9/12
Projected finish20th of 200% of fieldRange 15-20 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -16.2%Ahead 1/4