15:45 · Yarmouth

British EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m 3f 104yGoing TBCClass 43YO plusTURFHandicap9 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 78
3/1
Alice De Clare silks

Mr Paul Whight

3yo Filly · 9-8

Space Blues - Elegant Maxime (Maxios)

George Wood60%1/3J R Fanshawe60%
21171D
8.0Going 9.0

Has been building up positive profile in handicaps, making it 3 wins from last 4 starts in gritty fashion at Lingfield. Failure to keep straight cost her further success at Goodwood 3 weeks ago (demoted) but her limit may not have been reached if she can keep straight with this track perhaps a help.

Class Advantage

23/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above23/04 · mark par23/0430/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/04 · mark par26/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above26/05 · mark par18/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below18/06 · mark par13/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/08 · mark par28/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above28/08 · mark par28/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 3f 104y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 91%23/04Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 2/7 | Expected: 99%Pos 1 · SP 2/7 | Actual: 100%26/05Pos 7 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 7 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 25%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 100%13/08Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%28/08
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength82%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +2.0%Ahead 2/4
9
2
OR 62
4/1
Caraway silks

Mr James Wigan

3yo Filly · 8-6

Gun Runner - Sorrel (Dansili)

Harry Davies60%W J Haggas
461322
7.0Class ↓2Going 8.0

Resumed her progress when off the mark at Thirsk (1½m) in May and has run to a similar level all 3 starts since, undone by a slow pace when second over C&D 7 weeks ago, finishing best. Clearly still mileage in her from this sort of mark.

Class Advantage

6/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above6/04 · mark par6/048/05 · C6 · finish vs mark below8/05 · mark par16/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par11/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above11/06 · mark par22/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/07 · mark par23/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above23/07 · mark par23/07projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength24%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 3f 104y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 4 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 50%6/04Pos 6 · SP 6/5 | Expected: 94%Pos 6 · SP 6/5 | Actual: 17%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%16/05Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 2 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 50%22/07Pos 2 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 2 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 75%23/07
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength51%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -12.9%Ahead 1/4
6
Value3
OR 70
7/1
Princess Honey Bee silks

Nick Bradley 45 & Craig Lidster

3yo Filly · 9-0

Aclaim - Bee Ina Bonnet (Helmet)

Tom Marquand70%Craig Lidster
342241
6.0Class ↓2Going 8.0

Found some improvement and proved her stamina for this far when chasing home a useful prospect at Ripon (1m) in July. Couldn't capitalise on what looked a good opportunity when fourth at Windsor but she did get it right at Lingfield (1m) 2 weeks ago. Significantly up in distance for handicap debut.

Class Advantage

19/08 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a19/0825/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a16/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above16/07 · mark par27/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par10/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/08 · mark par3/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength36%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 3f 104y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 3 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 67%19/08Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 50%16/07Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 4 · SP 4/7 | Expected: 97%Pos 4 · SP 4/7 | Actual: 57%10/08Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%3/09
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength47%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -11.6%Ahead 2/4
1
4
OR 76
11/2
Nowshesdancing silks

The Equema Partnership Ii

4yo Filly · 9-12

Teofilo - Sirajiah (Exceed And Excel)

Kaiya Fraser70%0/3Harry Eustace
13632
5.0Going 8.0

Made a winning start in Dundalk maiden in January for Mark Fahey. Good third at Wetherby on yard debut on return in April and proved her handicap bow wasn't a true reflection when placed last 2 starts. Can remain competitive.

Class Advantage

28/01 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a28/0126/04 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a8/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above8/06 · mark par19/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par23/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/07 · mark par23/07projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength21%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 3f 104y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 1 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 100%28/01Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 67%26/04Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 44%8/06Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 67%19/06Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 67%23/07
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength41%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +22.1%Ahead 3/4
8
6
OR 68
8/1
Clocker silks

Clocker Partnership

3yo Filly · 8-12

Time Test - Oh Dream (Oasis Dream)

Billy Loughnane80%E Bethell
461218
5.0Class ↓2Going 8.0

Showed improved form when off the mark in 6-runner handicap at Hamilton (11f) in July and made the most of a good opportunity to double her tally at Ripon (1½m, good to firm). Found combination of 13f and soft ground too much of a test at Hamilton and better expected here with Loughnane taking over.

Class Advantage

20/04 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a20/049/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/06 · mark par11/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par29/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above29/07 · mark par15/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/08 · mark par2/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/09 · mark par2/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 3f 104y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 73%20/04Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 44%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%11/07Pos 2 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 2 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 100%15/08Pos 8 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 8 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 36%2/09
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength27%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -11.4%Ahead 2/4
5
7
OR 73
15/2
Shangri La silks

Miss K Rausing

3yo Filly · 9-3

St Mark's Basilica - Oriental Mystique (Kingman)

Callum Shepherd70%0/1D M Simcock60%
44353
5.0

From a middle-distance family that connections have had plenty of success with. Shaped well/finished with running left when beaten under 4½ lengths on handicap debut/reappearance at Wolverhampton (1½m) in July. Third back in maiden company since and return to this trip in her favour.

Class Advantage

12/09 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a12/096/10 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a6/12 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a14/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above14/07 · mark par13/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/08 · mark par13/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength17%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 3f 104y · 40%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 50%12/09Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 25%6/10Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 67%6/12Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 50%14/07Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 75%13/08
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength41%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -13.6%Ahead 1/4
4
5
OR 73
14/1
Rossa Raheen silks

Mr J L Day

3yo Filly · 9-3

Palace Pier - Orla Sky (Sea The Stars)

Callum Rodriguez60%1/1Ollie Sangster
026416
5.0

Suited by the step up to this distance when opening account in handicap at Salisbury in July. Failed to repeat that effort when down the field at the same course last month, though she remains unexposed over this trip and is in very capable hands.

Class Advantage

18/04 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a18/0415/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/05 · mark par9/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above9/06 · mark par2/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par25/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par13/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/08 · mark par13/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength30%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 3f 104y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 15 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 15 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 42%18/04Pos 2 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 92%Pos 6 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 6 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 17%9/06Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 70%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%25/07Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 17%13/08
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength4%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -23.1%Ahead 1/4
7
8
OR 70
8/1
Willow Wood silks

Cayton Park Stud Limited

3yo Filly · 9-0

Wootton Bassett - Willoughby (Oasis Dream)

K Shoemark60%1/4E Walker
454153
5.0

With handicap/seasonal debut behind her, proved a different proposition upped further in trip when scoring comfortably at Ffos Las (1½m) in June. Raced too keenly when last of 5 at Doncaster but held up to better effect trying 13f and had no issues seeing out that trip when third at Musselburgh.

Class Advantage

2/10 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a2/1026/11 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a30/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above30/04 · mark par4/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par18/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below18/07 · mark par7/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/08 · mark par7/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength23%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 3f 104y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 50%2/10Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 69%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 63%30/04Pos 1 · SP 16/5 | Expected: 83%Pos 1 · SP 16/5 | Actual: 100%Pos 5 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 5 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 0%18/07Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 60%7/08
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength12%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -17.1%Ahead 2/4
2
9
OR 80
14/1
Ladykirk silks

Mr P W Harris

3yo Filly · 9-10

Blue Point - Copplestone (Sea The Stars)

D Egan60%Jane Chapple-Hyam
25528
4.0

Continued theme of race-by-race progress on first try over this trip when second at Kempton last month. Blindfold removed late back there 3 weeks ago on handicap debut so easy to put a line through that run.

Class Advantage

21/10 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a21/1024/04 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a22/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a12/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/08 · mark par26/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below26/08 · mark par26/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength55%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 3f 104y · 60%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 89%21/10Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 56%24/04Pos 5 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 5 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 20%22/05Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 75%12/08Pos 8 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 8 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 0%26/08
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -22.2%Ahead 1/4