14:30 · Ayr

IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap (Div 1)

1mGood to Soft (Soft in places)Class 53YO plusTURFHandicap12 runners
Ordered by projected finish
8
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 74
4/1
Tarmonbarry Kid silks

Merchants and Missionaries

3yo Gelding · 9-9

Sioux Nation - Ajmera (Canford Cliffs)

O J Orr60%2/6R A Fahey60%
356131
7.0Going 8.0

Lightly-raced 3-y-o who improved a chunk make it 2 wins in 3 starts at Beverley (8.5f, heavy) last time, when clearly at home on the ground (has also won on good). Still early days in handicaps and a 4-lb rise hardly looks insurmountable.

Class Advantage

30/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a30/097/11 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a24/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below24/04 · mark par16/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par17/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/06 · mark par29/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength17%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 17%Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 50%30/09Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 17%24/04Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 60%17/06Pos 1 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 1 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 100%29/08
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +15.5%Ahead 2/4
9
3
OR 68
16/1
Cisco Disco silks

Mrs Camille Macdonald

8yo Gelding · 9-7

Elzaam - Sovereign Street (Compton Place)

C Lee70%1/3R M Smith60%
187067
4.0

Quirky sort who hasn't fired since completing a course hat-trick last autumn. At least fared better than previously this season when beaten 6¼ lengths here last time (1¼m, good). Now 3 lb below his latest winning mark and forecast rain will only help his chances.

Class Advantage

9/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/10 · mark par9/1020/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/05 · mark par19/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par5/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below5/07 · mark par20/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par10/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above10/08 · mark par10/08projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength54%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 17%Dist: 1m · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%9/10Pos 8 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 30%Pos 7 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 33%19/06Pos 10 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 38%20/07Pos 7 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 50%10/08
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength68%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +30.2%Ahead 3/4
4
4
OR 72
5/1
Atmosphere silks

Phil Cunningham

4yo Gelding · 9-11

Advertise - Mother Love (Heeraat)

Saffie Osborne70%0/1R Spencer60%
332253
6.0
Visor

Enthusiastic sort who was successful 3 times during 2025. Knocking on the door with back-to-back seconds at Kempton over the spring. Did all he could when 9¼ lengths third at Ascot (good) last time, without scaling the heights of his all-weather form. Has run well on soft ground previously.

Class Advantage

19/11 · C5 · finish vs mark above19/11 · mark par19/1118/02 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/02 · mark par18/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/03 · mark par8/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above8/04 · mark par16/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below16/07 · mark par4/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength55%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 82%19/11Pos 3 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 3 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 80%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 92%18/03Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 91%Pos 5 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 5 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 0%16/07Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 80%4/09
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength73%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -2.4%Ahead 2/4
5
6
OR 72
9/2
Havana Touch silks

Mr J Butler

5yo Gelding · 9-11

Havana Grey - Flighty Clarets (Bahamian Bounty)

Mikey Sheehy60%J Butler
212612
6.0

In-form 5-y-o who wasn't beaten far on just his third turf start at Ripon in June. Subsequently notched a fourth all-weather win in this grade at Kempton and confirmed he's better than ever when runner-up at Lingfield last time. Could be poised to land a first victory on this surface.

Class Advantage

17/03 · C6 · finish vs mark above17/03 · mark par17/031/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/04 · mark par30/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above30/04 · mark par3/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/06 · mark par10/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/06 · mark par25/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/08 · mark par25/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength48%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 90%17/03Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 88%30/04Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 55%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%10/06Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 88%25/08
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength76%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +1.6%Ahead 3/4
11
5
OR 65
8/1
Second Fiddle silks

Valerie Renwick, Kevin Kerr & Ijr

7yo Mare · 9-4

Fulbright - Somedaysrdiamonds (Equiano)

A Mullen70%0/2I Jardine
323342
6.0Class ↓3

Successful 6 times in the second half of last year (5 of those wins at Newcastle). Has been running consistently well without getting her head in front recently, finishing ½-length second in Newcastle handicap on return to all-weather last time. Should give another good account.

Class Advantage

30/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/06 · mark par30/0611/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par17/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par11/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/08 · mark par21/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par5/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength64%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 17%Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 67%30/06Pos 2 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 2 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 80%Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 50%17/07Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 63%21/08Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 88%5/09
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength58%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -0.7%Ahead 2/4
6
Value2
OR 71
12/1
Runninsonofagun silks

Mr R Nichol

4yo Gelding · 9-10

Inns Of Court - High Society Lady (Society Rock)

Jason Hart60%2/5T Davidson60%
322610
6.0
Blinkers

Front runner who enhanced a good course record when scoring over C&D in July. Justified support to land a second success under the returning Jason Hart at Musselburgh the following month. Some mitigation for rare poor effort at Carlisle latest and probably worth another chance.

Class Advantage

20/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par20/0727/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par8/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par17/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/08 · mark par24/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above24/08 · mark par9/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 1m · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 75%20/07Pos 2 · SP 8/15 | Expected: 97%Pos 2 · SP 8/15 | Actual: 88%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 91%8/08Pos 6 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 6 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 38%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%24/08Pos 10 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 10 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 0%9/09
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -20.9%Ahead 2/4
10
7
OR 68
15/2
Sanafi Zabeel silks

Johnnie Delta Racing

5yo Gelding · 9-7

Intello - Full Rose (Aqlaam)

P Mulrennan60%2/4J S Goldie
334513
6.0Going 8.0

Landed second all-the-way Hamilton win of a productive first season with Jim Goldie at Hamilton last month. Still in good heart when 4 lengths third at Catterick since, though remains on a career-high mark.

Class Advantage

11/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par11/0716/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/07 · mark par1/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/08 · mark par8/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par11/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/08 · mark par27/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above27/08 · mark par27/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength56%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 50%11/07Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 67%1/08Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 64%Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 100%11/08Pos 3 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 3 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 71%27/08
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength36%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -6.8%Ahead 2/4
1
8
OR 75
14/1
Selection silks

Ontoawinner & Partner

4yo Filly · 10-0

Cotai Glory - Maghzaa (Aqlaam)

D Nolan1/4I Furtado60%
267525
4.0
Cheek pieces

Dual winner who notched a third runner-up finish of the year when going close at Pontefract (1m) in May. Disappointed when beaten 8¾ lengths over the same C&D subsequently. Still needs considering in a slightly lesser grade following 11 weeks away.

Class Advantage

21/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above21/03 · mark par21/035/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below5/04 · mark par25/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/04 · mark par16/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par22/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/05 · mark par29/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above29/06 · mark par29/06projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength49%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 17%Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 90%21/03Pos 6 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 6 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 0%Pos 7 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 25%25/04Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 64%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 89%22/05Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 33%29/06
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength18%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +13.9%Ahead 3/4
3
9
OR 73
16/1
Orangesandlemons silks

Clarendon Thoroughbred Racing

4yo Filly · 9-12

Mayson - Strawberryandcream (Cityscape)

D Tudhope60%E Bethell60%
615389
3.0Class ↓3
Cheek pieces

Doubled her tally in much better company at Nottingham last October. Hasn't gone on from her reappearance this year, but booking of Daniel Tudhope catches the eye on return from 3-month absence (has gone well fresh).

Class Advantage

1/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/09 · mark par1/092/10 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above2/10 · mark par22/10 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above22/10 · mark par17/04 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/04 · mark par9/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above9/05 · mark par3/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below3/06 · mark par3/06projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength62%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 17%Dist: 1m · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 50%1/09Pos 1 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 1 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 43%22/10Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 8 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 8 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 30%9/05Pos 9 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 9 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 11%3/06
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -28.4%Ahead 0/4
13
12
OR 58
16/1
Keats House silks

Middleham Park & Rond Point Partnershi

4yo Gelding · 8-11

Earthlight - Maria Christina (Kodiac)

Joanna Mason60%2/8M & D Easterby80%
775554
4.0
1st Blinkers +3

Well-treated on his form in 3-y-o handicaps last year, however, he fared no better than on recent starts when failing to justify support at Hamilton last time (beaten 6½ lengths). Hopes of a revival pinned on addition of first-time blinkers (visor didn't have the desired effect previously).

Class Advantage

25/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/04 · mark par25/0422/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/05 · mark par20/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par30/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/06 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par2/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above2/09 · mark par2/09projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 17%Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 7 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 33%25/04Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 64%20/06Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 33%Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 50%27/07Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 67%2/09
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength21%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +4.1%Ahead 2/4
2
10
OR 74
16/1
It'sneverjustone silks

Ian O'Connor & The Fox and Hounds

4yo Gelding · 9-13

Massaat - Nigella (Band On The Run)

K Stott70%D Loughnane60%
544600
3.0Class ↓3

Completed 7f handicap double at the Galway Festival last summer. Showed that ability remained when fourth on first couple of starts this season. Gone off the boil since, though at least warrants a market check on a rare start in Class 5 company.

Class Advantage

27/10 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above27/10 · mark par27/1029/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above29/03 · mark par18/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/04 · mark par14/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below14/06 · mark par28/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below28/07 · mark par3/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move
Strength54%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places) · 50%Dist: 1m · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 56%27/10Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 80%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 73%18/04Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 17%Pos 14 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 14 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 7%28/07Pos 10 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 10 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 25%3/09
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -25.5%Ahead 1/4
12
11
OR 61
20/1
Perfidia silks

MR S BULMER & PARTNER

4yo Gelding · 9-0

Dandy Man - Final Treat (Acclamation)

D Allan60%0/8T D Easterby60%
122730
4.0Class ↓3
Cheek pieces

Notched a second win of the season when making all at Nottingham in June. Hit and miss since, beaten just under 7 lengths at Redcar last time. Back up in grade here, too.

Class Advantage

25/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above25/06 · mark par25/0630/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/06 · mark par18/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par28/07 · C6 · finish vs mark below28/07 · mark par11/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above11/08 · mark par9/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength29%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Soft (Soft in places)Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%25/06Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 83%Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 80%18/07Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 14%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 71%11/08Pos 10 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 10 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 50%9/09
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 10-12 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -17.8%Ahead 1/4