2
Leader Conti
5yo Gelding · 11-2
Auteuil · Prix Laniste Chase · 2m 5f 191y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
40%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength48%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.6
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Auteuil | 1 | 3rd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-04-09 | Auteuil | 2 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-23 | Auteuil | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-13 | Pau | 2 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-12-24 | Pau | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Auteuil | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 01/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 89% | +0.23 |
| 23/10/2025 | 4th | 8/11 | 96% | 70% | -0.26 |
| 24/12/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 13/01/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 82% | -0.10 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |