4
Micawber
4yo Gelding · 11-2
Auteuil · Prix Henri Gleizes Chase · 2m 1f 87y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Clairefontaine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Dieppe | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Moulins | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-04-19 | Auteuil | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Compiegne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Toulouse | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength14%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/12/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 85% | +0.00 |
| 16/01/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 55% | -0.27 |
| 10/02/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 01/03/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 01/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 19/04/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.34 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |