3
Spes Miliclo
4yo Gelding · 11-2
Auteuil · Prix Henri Gleizes Chase · 2m 1f 87y
#9
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Auteuil | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-27 | Clairefontaine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Fontainebleau | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Fontainebleau | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-03-02 | Compiegne | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength59%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 28/11/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 73% | -0.19 |
| 02/03/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.21 |
| 29/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 70% | +0.28 |