2
Toastmaster
4yo Gelding · 11-2
Auteuil · Prix Henri Gleizes Chase · 2m 1f 87y
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Clairefontaine | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Auteuil | 1 | 5th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Auteuil | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-25 | Compiegne | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-01-04 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-12-25 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 36% | -0.22 |
| 11/11/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 01/12/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 08/12/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 25/12/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 04/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |