2
Bon Garcon
6yo Gelding · 10-5
Auteuil · Prix De Compiegne Hurdle - Grade 3 · 2m 3f 85y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Auteuil | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Auteuil | 1 | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Auteuil | 1 | +0 | ||
| 2025-10-18 | Auteuil | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-31 | Auteuil | ? | 1st | 1st | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength73%
Delivery trend +4.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2024 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 08/12/2024 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |
| 15/03/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 10/04/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |
| 31/05/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 18/10/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 25/04/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 30% | -0.33 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |