5
Diamond Dice
7yo Gelding · 10-5 · OR 112
Auteuil · Prix De Compiegne Hurdle - Grade 3 · 2m 3f 85y
#3
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Auteuil | 3 | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-06 | Compiegne | 3 | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-03-11 | Compiegne | 3 | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-02-21 | Fontainebleau | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-16 | Pau | BHA112 | 4th | 17th | −11 |
| 2025-02-25 | Leicester | 4 | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength57%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/2024 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 09/11/2024 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 17% | -0.71 |
| 26/12/2024 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 30/01/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 16/12/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 21/02/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 11/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 06/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 92% | +0.02 |