2
Affortunato
10yo Gelding · 11-4
Auteuil · Prix Le Paillon Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 85y
#1
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
85%
Place Prob
58%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Fontainebleau | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Pau | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Pau | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-02 | Fontainebleau | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Compiegne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Auteuil | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength72%
Delivery trend +7.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12/2024 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 44% | -0.42 |
| 30/12/2024 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |
| 05/09/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 23/09/2025 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 41% | +0.41 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 02/12/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 03/01/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 18/01/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/02/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |