12
Messy
5yo Gelding · 10-10
Auteuil · Prix Le Paillon Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 85y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/5
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Dieppe | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Clairefontaine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Nantes | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-09 | Fontainebleau | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Compiegne | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/05/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 29/10/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 16/11/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 09/12/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 29/05/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 93% | +0.09 |