3
Tenuta
5yo Filly · 11-2
Auteuil · Prix Le Paillon Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 85y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Compiegne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Auteuil | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Compiegne | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Compiegne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Compiegne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength73%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 19/11/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 22% | +0.17 |
| 15/12/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 29/12/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 93% | +0.78 |
| 02/03/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 11/03/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 79% | -0.00 |
| 23/03/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 53% | -0.26 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.30 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |