3
Illaho
5yo Gelding · 10-13
Auteuil · Prix Violon II Listed Handicap Chase · 2m 5f 191y
#13
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.9
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Compiegne | ? | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Auteuil | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Auteuil | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Auteuil | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 10th | 10th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength64%
Delivery trend +4.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/2025 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 03/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 15/12/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 04/01/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 18% | -0.34 |
| 01/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.29 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 56% | +0.13 |