13
Jaguar Des Obeaux
7yo Mare · 10-1
Auteuil · Prix Violon II Listed Handicap Chase · 2m 5f 191y
#14
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Auteuil | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Auteuil | 2 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Auteuil | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Angers | 3 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-11-16 | Auteuil | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 150% of fieldRange 15-15 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 15th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 09/09/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 23/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 92% | +0.39 |
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 16/11/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 01/03/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 13/04/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 38% | -0.05 |
| 16/05/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 47% | +0.10 |