5
Lebrio Des Mottes
5yo Gelding · 10-6
Auteuil · Prix Violon II Listed Handicap Chase · 2m 5f 191y
#11
Rank
Odds
35/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Clairefontaine | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Dieppe | 3 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-01 | Auteuil | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Angers | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Pau | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-05-31 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 10-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 24/03/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 10/04/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |
| 08/05/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 31/05/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 01/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 27/07/2026 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 21% | -0.05 |