6
Lumino Bello
5yo Gelding · 10-5
Auteuil · Prix Violon II Listed Handicap Chase · 2m 5f 191y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | Auteuil | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Auteuil | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Compiegne | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Nantes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 8-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength24%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2024 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 87% | +0.24 |
| 19/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 13/09/2025 | 11th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 01/11/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 29/11/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 83% | +0.28 |
| 23/03/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |