1
Ocre
6yo Mare · 11-4
Auteuil · Prix Violon II Listed Handicap Chase · 2m 5f 191y
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.8
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Auteuil | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Compiegne | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Auteuil | ? | 1st | 1st | +0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Auteuil | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-17 | Auteuil | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 4-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2024 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 88% | +0.45 |
| 30/10/2024 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 63% | -0.28 |
| 12/03/2025 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 22/04/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 23/09/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 79% | +0.36 |
| 29/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 29/11/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 23/03/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |