11
The Likely Lad
7yo Gelding · 10-2
Auteuil · Prix Violon II Listed Handicap Chase · 2m 5f 191y
#5
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Clairefontaine | ? | 6th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-07-14 | Aix-Les-Bains | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-16 | Strasbourg | 3 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-20 | Nancy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Strasbourg | BHA98 | −9 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1571% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2024 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 20/05/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 30/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 28/07/2025 | 10th | 3/1 | 84% | 36% | -0.48 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 26/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 58% | +0.32 |