10
Bassrah
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 78
Ayr · Almins Vantage/Lallemand Magniva Classic EBF Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
80%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength46%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Sandown | 2 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Yarmouth | 2 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Nottingham | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +39.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |