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Magwitch

2yo Colt · 9-7

Ayr · Almins Vantage/Lallemand Magniva Classic EBF Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

550,000 gns Night Of Thunder colt. Half-brother to smart winner up to 7f Dhabab (2-y-o 6f winner). Carrying plenty of condition/off the bridle before most when well beaten in a valuable maiden at York on debut. Entitled to do better with sights lowered here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength22%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 10.8 /10 (raw 12.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 7f GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS21/082
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21York212th11th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 10-15 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/202612th25/10%15%+0.15