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14

Edgewater Drive

5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 62

Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f

#5

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won pair of 5f handicaps on soft ground last autumn. Likely to have needed his reappearance (underwent another breathing operation in interim) at Hamilton latest. Potentially on a reasonable mark, if back on song.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 19/08/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 60 · 6f20y Std 125 · beat its mark19/08/2025 · OR 60 par19/085OR 606 @ Hamilton 03/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 58 · 6f6y Goo 128 · beat its mark03/09/2025 · OR 58 par6 @ Carlisle 09/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 58 · 5f182y Sft 135 · beat its mark09/09/2025 · OR 58 par9/096OR 586 @ Catterick 01/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 56 · 5f Sft 152 · beat its mark01/10/2025 · OR 56 par6 @ Ayr 09/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 56 · 7f50y Hvy 139 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 56 par9/106OR 565 @ Leicester 28/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 59 · 5f Sft 119 · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 59 par5 @ Nottingham 29/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 59 · 5f8y Sft 124 · beat its mark29/10/2025 · OR 59 par29/105OR 594 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 21 · OR 66 · 7f6y Hvy 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 66 par6 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 65 · 6f6y Sft 135 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 65 par2/096OR 65projClass-projected finish: 12th of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Hamilton613th14th−1
2025-11-08Doncaster48th7th+1
2025-10-29Nottingham51st1st0
2025-10-28Leicester53rd3rd0
2025-10-09Ayr64th5th−1
2025-10-01Catterick61st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/081/1029/102/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 2074% of fieldRange 4-20 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength34%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 20. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/08/202511th33/10%0%0.00
03/09/20254th22/10%63%+0.63
09/09/20259th9/276%20%-0.56
01/10/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
09/10/20254th12/137%50%+0.13
28/10/20253rd14/126%75%+0.49
29/10/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
08/11/20258th33/10%65%+0.65
02/09/202613th33/10%0%0.00