IvyArcIvyArc
5

Emperor's Son

5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 69

Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f

#18

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#18

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful twice for Richard & Peter Fahey this year. Sold for 11,000 gns after trailing the field on final start for that yard. Ran poorly on stable debut at Catterick latest, possibly not taking to first-time hood (now removed).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 04/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 67 · 6f Std 132 · beat its mark04/12/2025 · OR 67 par4/125OR 675 @ Wolverhampton 02/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 67 · 5f21y Std 132 · beat its mark02/01/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Southwell 13/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 70 · 4f214y Std 135 · beat its mark13/01/2026 · OR 70 par13/015OR 705 @ Newcastle 31/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 70 · 5f Std 135 · beat its mark31/01/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 70 · 5f Std 135 · below its mark06/02/2026 · OR 70 par6/025OR 705 @ Pontefract 08/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 68 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Hamilton 17/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 68 · 6f6y Goo 133 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 68 par17/065OR 684 @ Newmarket 04/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 70 · 6f GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Catterick 17/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 70 · 5f Goo 140 · below its mark17/08/2026 · OR 70 par17/085OR 70projClass-projected finish: 15th of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-17Catterick59th9th0
2026-07-04Newmarket410th9th+1
2026-06-17Hamilton51st1st0
2026-06-08Pontefract54th4th0
2026-02-06Newcastle59th9th0
2026-01-31Newcastle56th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1231/0117/0617/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 2026% of fieldRange 10-20 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength19%

Delivery trend +4.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 20. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/12/20253rd3/184%67%-0.18
02/01/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
13/01/20263rd15/890%60%-0.30
31/01/20266th13/266%44%-0.21
06/02/20269th5/174%20%-0.54
08/06/20264th9/153%67%+0.14
17/06/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
04/07/202610th20/10%0%0.00
17/08/20269th20/10%20%+0.20