IvyArcIvyArc
21

Falcon Queen

3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 52

Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f

#20

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#20

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-mileage 3-y-o. Promising fourth over C&D last month. Never got chance to justify support (denied a clear run) when dropped into a 0-55 at Musselburgh latest. Back up in grade here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 01/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 6f Std 1291/04C8C8 @ Dundalk 23/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 5f Std 1294 @ Hamilton 27/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 66 · 6f6y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 66 par27/054OR 664 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 64 · 6f Sft 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 62 · 5f Goo 125 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 62 par13/075OR 626 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 60 · 6f Goo 131 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 57 · 5f Goo 129 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 57 par8/086OR 576 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 55 · 5f7y GS 128 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Musselburgh 12/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 52 · 5f1y Goo 132 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 52 par12/096OR 52projClass-projected finish: 19th of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Musselburgh67th8th−1
2026-08-21Hamilton69th10th−1
2026-08-08Ayr64th5th−1
2026-07-27Ayr68th9th−1
2026-07-13Ayr56th6th0
2026-06-20Ayr49th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0420/068/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 2011% of fieldRange 9-20 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength17%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 18th of 20.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/04/20264th8/158%57%-0.01
23/04/20264th6/168%63%-0.06
27/05/20268th33/10%0%0.00
20/06/20269th66/10%38%+0.38
13/07/20266th33/10%50%+0.50
27/07/20268th40/10%13%+0.13
08/08/20264th50/10%73%+0.73
21/08/20269th18/15%11%+0.06
12/09/20267th5/174%40%-0.34