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4

Great Profit

3yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 70

Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-mileage 3-y-o. Runner-up twice here before getting off the mark at Thirsk (6f) last month. Only beaten 2 lengths when keen enough on final start for Gary Harrison latest. Should remain competitive back against his elders for new yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ripon 04/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 5f Gd 1334/0655 @ Redcar 21/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 5f GF 1304 @ Hamilton 02/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR - · 6f6y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS2/0844 @ Carlisle 18/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 62 · 6f195y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 5f Sft 132 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 60 par20/066OR 606 @ Hamilton 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 5f7y Goo 135 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 63 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 63 par27/076OR 636 @ Thirsk 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 63 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 70 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 70 par5/095OR 70projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Newcastle53rd3rd0
2026-08-07Thirsk61st2nd−1
2026-07-27Ayr62nd3rd−1
2026-07-16Hamilton62nd3rd−1
2026-06-20Ayr62nd3rd−1
2026-05-18Carlisle48th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0618/0527/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 2089% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength95%

Delivery trend +10.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 20. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/06/20257th10/382%14%-0.68
21/06/20256th15/261%17%-0.44
02/08/20254th17/255%0%-0.55
18/05/20268th200/10%30%+0.30
20/06/20262nd66/10%86%+0.86
16/07/20262nd9/153%86%+0.33
27/07/20262nd17/255%88%+0.32
07/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
05/09/20263rd7/282%85%+0.03