13
Hi Lord
4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 63
Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 6 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hamilton | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hamilton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 2037% of fieldRange 9-20 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 20.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |
| 10/03/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 21/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 10/06/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 08/08/2026 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 18% | -0.58 |
| 08/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |