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12

Justmyluck

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 65

Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f

#15

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Quirky sort who hasn't fired since getting off the mark on the all-weather in January. Worth checking if the market expects a revival for this sizeable drop in grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 16/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 6f20y Std 12816/0955 @ Newcastle 19/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 72 · 6f Std 131 · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 72 par5 @ Newcastle 10/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 71 · 5f Std 134 · beat its mark10/01/2026 · OR 71 par10/015OR 714 @ Wolverhampton 17/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 77 · 5f21y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/02/2026 · OR 77 par2 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 76 · 6f Std 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 76 par3/042OR 764 @ Haydock 23/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 75 · 5f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Hamilton 17/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 73 · 5f7y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/07/2026 · OR 73 par17/074OR 734 @ Doncaster 15/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 70 · 5f143y GF 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 70 par3 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 70 · 5f7y GS 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 70 par21/083OR 70projClass-projected finish: 16th of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Hamilton39th7th+2
2026-08-15Doncaster49th8th+1
2026-07-17Hamilton45th4th+1
2026-05-23Haydock48th7th+1
2026-04-03Newcastle211th7th+3
2026-02-17Wolverhampton45th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0917/0217/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 2032% of fieldRange 11-20 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength9%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 20.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/09/20252nd10/382%89%+0.06
19/12/20253rd5/287%83%-0.04
10/01/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
17/02/20265th6/168%33%-0.35
03/04/202611th66/10%23%+0.23
23/05/20268th22/10%0%0.00
17/07/20265th40/10%0%0.00
15/08/20269th80/10%11%+0.11
21/08/20269th100/10%20%+0.20