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3

King's Crown

6yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 69

Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f

#13

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won twice on the all-weather at Newcastle over the winter. Bit better than the bare result when beaten 2½ lengths at Hamilton last time (form has taken a few knocks) and drops a further 2 lb here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 13/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 78 · 5f Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/01/2026 · OR 78 par13/014OR 784 @ Newcastle 22/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 78 · 5f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/01/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Newcastle 04/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 77 · 5f Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/02/2026 · OR 77 par4/024OR 774 @ Southwell 02/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 76 · 6f16y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 76 par5 @ Wetherby 26/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 75 · 5f110y Goo 135 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 75 par26/045OR 755 @ Pontefract 22/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 73 · 5f3y Goo 133 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 73 · 5f Goo 134 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 73 par16/065OR 735 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 72 · 5f Goo 140 · below its mark13/07/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 71 · 5f7y Gd 131 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 71 par1/085OR 71projClass-projected finish: 10th of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01Hamilton55th5th0
2026-07-13Ayr510th10th0
2026-06-16Thirsk54th4th0
2026-05-22Pontefract53rd3rd0
2026-04-26Wetherby55th5th0
2026-04-02Southwell46th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/012/0416/061/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 2053% of fieldRange 1-20 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength45%

Delivery trend +5.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 20. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/01/20265th15/261%0%-0.61
22/01/20265th16/116%43%+0.27
04/02/20266th14/126%0%-0.26
02/04/20266th22/10%44%+0.44
26/04/20265th15/261%20%-0.41
22/05/20263rd12/137%78%+0.41
16/06/20264th8/158%67%+0.09
13/07/202610th9/153%10%-0.43
01/08/20265th28/10%60%+0.60