15
Knicks
5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 62
Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#10
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Leicester | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Pontefract | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Pontefract | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 2042% of fieldRange 8-20 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength27%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 20.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.18 |
| 29/04/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 22/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 56% | -0.05 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 16/06/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 44% | -0.41 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 90% | +0.22 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |