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8

Lion's House

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 67

Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f

#11

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Went close in 6-runner handicap prior to finding things too competitive in better race at Doncaster last time. Fairly treated but the type who needs plenty to fall right.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 05/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 71 · 5f Std 131 · beat its mark05/03/2026 · OR 71 par5/035OR 714 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 17 · OR 70 · 5f1y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Newcastle 01/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 69 · 6f Std 134 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 69 par1/055OR 694 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 70 · 6f6y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Hamilton 04/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 70 · 5f7y Goo 130 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 70 par4/065OR 704 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 69 · 6f Sft 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 67 par13/075OR 675 @ Newmarket 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 66 · 5f GF 130 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 66 par4 @ Doncaster 15/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 68 · 5f143y GF 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 68 par15/084OR 68projClass-projected finish: 5th of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Doncaster46th5th+1
2026-08-08Newmarket52nd2nd0
2026-07-13Ayr54th4th0
2026-06-20Ayr412th11th+1
2026-06-04Hamilton54th4th0
2026-05-17Hamilton412th11th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0317/0513/0715/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 2063% of fieldRange 6-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength41%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 20.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/03/20265th4/179%64%-0.15
12/04/202613th20/10%25%+0.25
01/05/20262nd13/266%91%+0.25
17/05/202612th40/10%8%+0.08
04/06/20264th4/179%40%-0.39
20/06/202612th22/10%15%+0.15
13/07/20264th11/142%70%+0.28
08/08/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
15/08/20266th16/116%44%+0.29