18
Lucius Aurelius
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 55
Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f
#16
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Catterick | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Catterick | 6 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Pontefract | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Catterick | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Pontefract | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Catterick | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish19th of 205% of fieldRange 18-20 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 19th of 20.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 56% | -0.05 |
| 10/03/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 27% | -0.49 |
| 07/04/2026 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 22/05/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 29/06/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 15/07/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 04/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |