19
Never Dark
9yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 54
Ayr · Brandinghub For Signs & Graphics Handicap · 5f
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#9
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hamilton | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 2058% of fieldRange 6-20 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 20.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 17/10/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 09/09/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 45% | -0.37 |